TABLE 28, [Known risk factors and how they are incorporated into existing risk models]. - Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study

	RR at extremes	Gail	Claus	BRCAPRO/ Ford	TC	BOADICEA
Prediction
Amir et al.⁵⁷ validation study ratio^a		0.48	0.56	0.49	0.81	Not assessed
95% CI		0.37 to 0.64	0.43 to 0.75	0.37 to 0.65	0.62 to 1.08	Not assessed
Personal information
Age (20–70)	30	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
BMI	2	No	No	No	Yes	No
Alcohol intake (0–4 units) daily	1.24	No	No	No	No	No
Hormonal/reproductive factors
Age at menarche	2	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Age at first live birth	3	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Age at menopause	4	No	No	No	Yes	No
HRT use	2	No	No	No	Yes	No
OCP use	1.24	No	No	No	No	No
Breastfeeding	0.8	No	No	No	No	No
Plasma oestrogen	5	No	No	No	No	No
Personal breast disease
Breast biopsies	2	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Atypical ductal hyperplasia	3	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
Lobular carcinoma in situ	4	No	No	No	Yes	No
Breast density	6	No	No	No	No	No
Family history
First-degree relatives	3	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Second-degree relatives	1.5	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Third-degree relatives		No	No	No	No	Yes
Age of onset of breast cancer	3	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Bilateral breast cancer	3	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Ovarian cancer	1.5	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Male breast cancer	3–5	No	No	Yes	No	Yes

RR at extremes

Gail

Claus

BRCAPRO/ Ford

BOADICEA

Prediction

Amir et al.⁵⁷ validation study ratio^a

0.48

0.56

0.49

0.81

Not assessed

95% CI

0.37 to 0.64

0.43 to 0.75

0.37 to 0.65

0.62 to 1.08

Not assessed

Personal information

Age (20–70)

Yes

BMI

Yes

Alcohol intake (0–4 units) daily

1.24

Hormonal/reproductive factors

Age at menarche

Yes

Age at first live birth

Yes

Age at menopause

Yes

HRT use

Yes

OCP use

1.24

Breastfeeding

0.8

Plasma oestrogen

Personal breast disease

Breast biopsies

Yes

Atypical ductal hyperplasia

Yes

Lobular carcinoma in situ

Yes

Breast density

Family history

First-degree relatives

Yes

Second-degree relatives

1.5

Yes

Third-degree relatives

Yes

Age of onset of breast cancer

Yes

Bilateral breast cancer

Yes

Ovarian cancer

1.5

Yes

Male breast cancer

3–5

Yes

From: Chapter 4, PROCAS: Predicting Risk of Breast Cancer at Screening

Cover of Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study

Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study.

Programme Grants for Applied Research, No. 4.11.

Evans DG, Astley S, Stavrinos P, et al.

Southampton (UK): NIHR Journals Library; 2016 Aug.

Copyright © Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2016. This work was produced by Evans et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary of State for Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes of private research and study and extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in professional journals provided that suitable acknowledgement is made and the reproduction is not associated with any form of advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should be addressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University of Southampton Science Park, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.

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