The design of welfare programs in an era of reform and devolution to the states must take into account the likely effects of programs on demographic behavior. Most research on welfare in the past has examined labor market issues, although there have also been some important evaluations of the effects of the Aid to Families with Dependent Children Program on out-of-wedlock childbearing. Much less information is available on other issues equally central to the debate, including effects on abortion decisions, marriage and divorce, intrafamily relations, household formation, and living arrangements. This volume of papers contains reviews and syntheses of existing evidence bearing on the demographic impacts of welfare and ideas for how to evaluate new state-level reforms.

Contents

• Committee on Population 1997-1998
• Board on Children, Youth, and Families 1997–1998
• Contributors
• [The National Academies]
• Preface
• 1. Introduction
  • Chapters in this Volume
  • Implications for Policy and Research in the PRWORA Era
  • Reference
• 2. The Changing Circumstances of Marriage and Fertility in the United States
  • What is Happening to Fertility?
  • Marriage: Delays and Declines
  • The Ubiquitous Rise of Nonmarital Fertility
  • Proximate Factors: Pathways for the Effects of Welfare on Nonmarital Fertility
  • Trends by Race and Socioeconomic Status
  • Conclusions
  • Acknowledgments
  • References
• 3. Trends in the Welfare System
  • Evolution of Expenditures and Participation in Public Assistance Programs
  • Public Assistance Programs and Government Spending
  • The 1996 Legislative Changes
  • Larger Patterns in Program Changes
  • Acknowledgment
  • References
• 4. The Effect of Welfare on Marriage and Fertility
  • Background
  • Different Questions of Interest
  • Methodologies Used in Estimating Welfare Effects
  • Basic Time-Series Patterns in Welfare and Demographic Outcomes
  • Results from Multivariate Econometric Models
  • What Do We Need to Know?
  • Acknowledgments
• 5. Welfare Reform and Abortion
  • Legal Status of Abortion
  • Demographic Role of Abortion
  • A Theoretical Perspective
  • Abortion Data
  • Methods
  • Existing Literature
  • Conclusions
  • Acknowledgments
  • References
• 6. Changing Family Formation Behavior Through Welfare Reform
  • Motivation for Reform
  • Family Structure as the Focus of Reform
  • Perspectives on the Reforms
  • Empirical Evidence from Prior Research
  • Prospective Findings from the Waiver Demonstrations
  • Evaluating the Great Social Experiment
  • Conclusion
  • Acknowledgments
• 7. The Effect of Welfare on Child Outcomes
  • How We Know What We Know
  • What We Know About Cash Programs
  • What We Know About In-Kind Programs
  • What We Need to Know
  • Conclusions
  • Acknowledgments
  • References

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.