Number Converter and Risk Charts

Steven Woloshin; Lisa M. Schwartz; H. Gilbert Welch

Number Converter and Risk Charts

Table

Risk Chart for Men. Find the line closest to your age and smoking status. The numbers in that row tell you how many out of 1,000 men in that group will die in the next 10 years from . . .

Table

Risk Chart for Women. Find the line closest to your age and smoking status. The numbers in that row tell you how many out of 1,000 women in that group will die in the next 10 years from . . .

Publication Details

Copyright

Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics is hereby licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported license, which permits copying, distribution, and transmission of the work, provided the original work is properly cited, not used for commercial purposes, nor is altered or transformed.

Publisher

University of California Press, Berkeley (CA)

NLM Citation

Woloshin S, Schwartz LM, Welch HG. Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics. Berkeley (CA): University of California Press; 2008. Number Converter and Risk Charts.

Number Converter

1 in __	Decimal	Percent	__ out of 1,000
1 in 1	1.00	100%	1,000 out of 1,000
1 in 2	0.50	50%	500 out of 1,000
1 in 3	0.33	33%	333 out of 1,000
1 in 4	0.25	25%	250 out of 1,000
1 in 5	0.20	20%	200 out of 1,000
1 in 6	0.17	17%	167 out of 1,000
1 in 7	0.14	14%	143 out of 1,000
1 in 8	0.13	13%	125 out of 1,000
1 in 9	0.11	11%	111 out of 1,000
1 in 10	0.10	10%	100 out of 1,000
1 in 20	0.05	5.0%	50 out of 1,000
1 in 25	0.04	4.0%	40 out of 1,000
1 in 50	0.02	2.0%	20 out of 1,000
1 in 100	0.01	1.0%	10 out of 1,000
1 in 200	0.0050	0.50%	5 out of 1,000
1 in 250	0.0040	0.40%	4 out of 1,000
1 in 300	0.0033	0.33%	3.3 out of 1,000
1 in 400	0.0025	0.25%	2.5 out of 1,000
1 in 500	0.0020	0.20%	2.0 out of 1,000
1 in 600	0.0017	0.17%	1.7 out of 1,000
1 in 700	0.0014	0.14%	1.4 out of 1,000
1 in 800	0.0013	0.13%	1.3 out of 1,000
1 in 900	0.0011	0.11%	1.1 out of 1,000
1 in 1,000	0.0010	0.10%	1.0 out of 1,000
1 in 2,000	0.00050	0.050%	0.50 out of 1,000
1 in 3,000	0.00033	0.033%	0.33 out of 1,000
1 in 4,000	0.00025	0.025%	0.25 out of 1,000
1 in 5,000	0.00020	0.020%	0.20 out of 1,000
1 in 10,000	0.00010	0.010%	0.10 out of 1,000
1 in 25,000	0.00004	0.004%	0.040 out of 1,000
1 in 50,000	0.00002	0.002%	0.020 out of 1,000
1 in 100,000	0.00001	0.001%	0.010 out of 1,000
1 in 1,000,000	0.000001	0.0001%	0.001 out of 1,000

: Note: For numbers less than 1 out of 1,000 (such as 0.50 out of 1,000), it is clearer to recast them as “___ out of 10,000” (“5 out of 10,000,” for instance), because it allows you to use a whole number rather than a decimal.

Risk Chart for Men

Find the line closest to your age and smoking status. The numbers in that row tell you how many out of 1,000 men in that group will die in the next 10 years from . . .

Age	Smoking Status	Vascular Disease		Cancer			Infection			Lung Disease	Accidents	All Causes Combined
Age	Smoking Status	Heart Attack	Stroke	Lung	Colon	Prostate	Pneumonia	Flu	AIDS	COPD	Accidents	All Causes Combined
35	Never smoked	1	1						2		5	15
35	Smoker	7	1	1					2		5	42

40	Never smoked	3	1	1	1				2		6	24
40	Smoker	14	2	4	1				2	1	6	62

45	Never smoked	6	1	1	1				2		6	35
45	Smoker	21	3	8	1		1		2	2	6	91

50	Never smoked	11	1	1	2	1	1		1		5	49
50	Smoker	29	5	18	2	1	1		1	3	5	128

55	Never smoked	19	3	1	3	2	1		1	1	5	74
55	Smoker	41	7	34	3	1	2		1	7	4	178

60	Never smoked	32	5	2	5	3	2		1	1	5	115
60	Smoker	56	11	59	5	3	3		1	16	4	256

65	Never smoked	52	9	4	8	6	3			3	6	176
65	Smoker	74	16	89	7	6	5			26	5	365

70	Never smoked	87	18	6	10	12	6			5	7	291
70	Smoker	100	26	113	9	10	9			45	6	511

75	Never smoked	137	32	8	13	19	12			6	11	449
75	Smoker	140	39	109	11	15	16			60	9	667

: Source: Steven Woloshin, Lisa Schwartz, and H. Gilbert Welch, “The Risk of Death by Age, Sex, and Smoking Status in the United States: Putting Health Risks in Context,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 100 (2008): 845–853.

: Note: Shaded portions mean that the chance is less than 1 out of 1,000. People who have never smoked are defined as those who do not smoke now and who have smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime. Smokers are defined as people who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and who currently smoke (any amount). COPD is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis. The numbers in the All Causes Combined column do not represent row totals because they include many other causes of death in addition to the ones listed in the chart.

Risk Chart for Women

Find the line closest to your age and smoking status. The numbers in that row tell you how many out of 1,000 women in that group will die in the next 10 years from . . .

Age	Smoking Status	Vascular Disease		Cancer					Infection			Lung Disease	Accidents	All Causes Combined
Age	Smoking Status	Heart Attack	Stroke	Lung	Breast	Colon	Ovarian	Cervical	Pneumonia	Flu	AIDS	COPD	Accidents	All Causes Combined
35	Never smoked	1			1						1		2	14
35	Smoker	1	1	1	1						1		2	14

40	Never smoked	1			2	1					1		2	19
40	Smoker	4	2	4	2						1	1	2	27

45	Never smoked	2	1	1	3	1	1				1		2	25
45	Smoker	9	3	7	3	1	1		1		1	2	2	45

50	Never smoked	4	1	1	4	1	1						2	37
50	Smoker	13	5	14	4	1	1		1			4	2	69

55	Never smoked	8	2	2	6	2	2	1	1			1	2	55
55	Smoker	20	6	26	5	2	2	1	1			9	2	110

60	Never smoked	14	4	3	7	3	3	1	1			2	2	84
60	Smoker	31	8	41	6	3	3	1	2			18	2	167

65	Never smoked	25	7	5	8	5	4	1	2			3	3	131
65	Smoker	45	15	55	7	5	3	1	4			31	3	241

70	Never smoked	46	14	7	9	7	4	1	4			5	4	207
70	Smoker	66	25	61	8	6	4	1	7			44	4	335

75	Never smoked	86	30	7	10	10	5	1	8			6	7	335
75	Smoker	99	34	58	10	9	4		14			61	7	463

: Source: Steven Woloshin, Lisa Schwartz, and H. Gilbert Welch, “The Risk of Death by Age, Sex, and Smoking Status in the United States: Putting Health Risks in Context,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 100 (2008): 845–853.

: Note: Shaded portions mean that the chance is less than 1 out of 1,000. People who have never smoked are defined as those who do not smoke now and who have smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime. Smokers are defined as people who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and who currently smoke (any amount). COPD is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis. The numbers in the All Causes Combined column do not represent row totals because they include many other causes of death in addition to the ones listed in the chart.