Predictors of poor outcome despite recanalization: a multiple regression analysis of the NASA registry

J Neurointerv Surg. 2016 Mar;8(3):224-9. doi: 10.1136/neurintsurg-2014-011525. Epub 2015 Jan 6.

Abstract

Background: Mechanical thrombectomy with stent-retrievers results in higher recanalization rates compared with previous devices. Despite successful recanalization rates (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (TICI) score ≥2b) of 70-83%, good outcomes by 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≤2 are achieved in only 40-55% of patients. We evaluated predictors of poor outcomes (mRS >2) despite successful recanalization (TICI ≥2b) in the North American Solitaire Stent Retriever Acute Stroke (NASA) registry.

Methods: Logistic regression was used to evaluate baseline characteristics and recanalization outcomes for association with 90-day mRS score of 0-2 (good outcome) vs 3-6 (poor outcome). Univariate tests were carried out for all factors. A multivariable model was developed based on backwards selection from the factors with at least marginal significance (p≤0.10) on univariate analysis with the retention criterion set at p≤0.05. The model was refit to minimize the number of cases excluded because of missing covariate values; the c-statistic was a measure of predictive power.

Results: Of 354 patients, 256 (72.3%) were recanalized successfully. Based on 234 recanalized patients evaluated for 90-day mRS score, 116 (49.6%) had poor outcomes. Univariate analysis identified an increased risk of poor outcome for age ≥80 years, occlusion site of internal carotid artery (ICA)/basilar artery, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≥18, history of diabetes mellitus, TICI 2b, use of rescue therapy, not using a balloon-guided catheter or intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV t-PA), and >30 min to recanalization (p≤0.05). In multivariable analysis, age ≥80 years, occlusion site ICA/basilar, initial NIHSS score ≥18, diabetes, absence of IV t-PA, ≥3 passes, and use of rescue therapy were significant independent predictors of poor 90-day outcome in a model with good predictive power (c-index=0.80).

Conclusions: Age, occlusion site, high NIHSS, diabetes, no IV t-PA, ≥3 passes, and use of rescue therapy are associated with poor 90-day outcome despite successful recanalization.

Keywords: Angiography; Intervention; Stroke; Thrombectomy.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • North America / epidemiology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Registries*
  • Regression Analysis
  • Reperfusion / instrumentation
  • Reperfusion / methods*
  • Risk Factors
  • Stents*
  • Stroke / diagnosis
  • Stroke / epidemiology*
  • Stroke / surgery*
  • Treatment Outcome