Abstract
We predict vaccine efficacy with a measure of antigenic distance between influenza A(H3N2) and vaccine viruses based on amino acid substitutions in the dominant epitope. In 2016-2017, our model predicts 19% efficacy compared with 20% observed. This tool assists candidate vaccine selection by predicting human protection against circulating strains.
Publication types
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
MeSH terms
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Antibodies, Viral / immunology
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Antigens, Viral
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Evolution, Molecular
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Humans
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Immunodominant Epitopes / immunology*
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Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype
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Influenza Vaccines / immunology*
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Influenza, Human / prevention & control*
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Mathematical Computing
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Models, Biological
Substances
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Antibodies, Viral
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Antigens, Viral
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Immunodominant Epitopes
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Influenza Vaccines