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Kendrick D, Ablewhite J, Achana F, et al. Keeping Children Safe: a multicentre programme of research to increase the evidence base for preventing unintentional injuries in the home in the under-fives. Southampton (UK): NIHR Journals Library; 2017 Jul. (Programme Grants for Applied Research, No. 5.14.)

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Keeping Children Safe: a multicentre programme of research to increase the evidence base for preventing unintentional injuries in the home in the under-fives.

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Appendix 5Search terms and strategies for studies H and I and base-case model inputs for the decision analyses for study K

Search terms for the overviews of reviews and primary studies for study H

Reproduced from Cooper NJ, Kendrick D, Achana F, Dhiman P, He Z, Wynn P, Le Cozannet E, Saramago P, Sutton A. Network meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to increase the uptake of smoke alarms. Epidemiologic Reviews 2012;34:32–45, by permission of Oxford University Press; Accident Analysis & Prevention 2013;60:158–171. Young B, Wynn PM, He Z, Kendrick D. Preventing childhood falls within the home: overview of systematic reviews and a systematic review of primary studies.48 Copyright 2013, with permission from Elsevier; Wynn P, Zou K, Young B, Majsak-Newman G, Hawkins A, Kay B, Mhizha-Murira J, Kendrick D. Prevention of childhood poisoning in the home: overview of systematic reviews and a systematic review of primary studies. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion 2016;23:2–28;390 and Achana FA, Sutton AJ, Kendrick D, Wynn P, Young B, Jones DR, et al. (2015) The effectiveness of different interventions to promote poison prevention behaviours in households with children: a network meta-analysis. PLOS ONE 10(4): e0121122.449 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121122.

Fire-related injuries

The following search strategy was used to search MEDLINE for overviews of reviews, systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The search strategy was adapted as necessary for the other databases.

  1. review.m_titl.
  2. systematic.m_titl.
  3. meta-analysis.m_titl.
  4. review.pt.
  5. meta-analysis.pt.
  6. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5
  7. limit 6 to humans
  8. exp CHILD/
  9. exp INFANT/
  10. 1exp ADOLESCENT/
  11. MINORS/
  12. (child$ or adolesc$ or infan$ or young$ or minor$ or toddl$ or bab$).tw.
  13. 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12
  14. exp “early intervention (education)”/
  15. exp EDUCATION/
  16. exp Public Health/ed
  17. exp PARENTING/
  18. exp COUNSELING/
  19. training.tw.
  20. (educat$ or train$ or teach$ or parent$ or counsel$).tw.
  21. 14 or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18 or 19 or 20
  22. exp Accident Prevention/ or injury prevention.tw.
  23. SAFETY/
  24. exp safety Management/
  25. safety practice$.tw.
  26. (firework or bonfire or barbecue).tw.
  27. exp Cookery/
  28. exp “Cooking and Eating Utensils”/
  29. microwave.tw.
  30. exp electricity/ or exp electric wiring/
  31. (electrical appliance or electric blanket).tw.
  32. candle.tw.
  33. exp fire Extinguishing Systems/ or fire extinguisher.tw.
  34. fire escape.tw.
  35. exp firesetting Behavior/
  36. thermostat$.tw.
  37. hot iron.tw.
  38. exp Heating/
  39. 22 or 23 or 24 or 25 or 26 or 27 or 28 or 29 or 30 or 31 or 32 or 33 or 34 or 35 or 36 or 37 or 38
  40. safety equipment.tw. or exp Equipment Safety/
  41. exp Infant Equipment/
  42. exp protective devices/ or (protect$ adj3 device$).tw.
  43. exp “interior design and furnishings”/
  44. (fire-guard$ or fireguard$).tw.
  45. (cook$ adj3 guard$).tw.
  46. (((smok$ adj3 alarm$) or smok$) adj3 detect$).tw.
  47. exp consumer product safety/
  48. 40 or 41 or 42 or 43 or 44 or 45 or 46 or 47
  49. exp Smoking Cessation/
  50. exp smoking/pc [prevention and control]
  51. 49 or 50
  52. exp ACCIDENTS/ or exp ACCIDENTS, HOME/
  53. exp burns/ or exp fires/
  54. exp SMOKE INHALATION INJURY/ or SMOKE.tw.
  55. exp “Wounds and Injuries”/
  56. (accident$ or burn$ or wound$ or injur$).tw.
  57. 52 or 53 or 54 or 55 or 56
  58. exp first aid/
  59. (first adj3 aid).tw.
  60. 58 or 59
  61. (7 and 13 and (21 or 39 or 48 or 51) and 57) or (7 and 60)

The above search was adapted to find primary studies published since the most comprehensive systematic review,352 substituting the terms below for study design terms in lines 1–6.

For experimental study designs

  1. randomi?ed controlled trial.pt.
  2. randomi?ed controlled trials.sh.
  3. randomi?ed controlled trial$.mp. or Randomi?ed Controlled Trials/
  4. random allocation.sh.
  5. double blind method.sh.
  6. single blind method.sh.
  7. Random Allocation/
  8. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7
  9. Clinical Trials/ or Placebos/
  10. CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIAL.pt.
  11. comparative stud$.mp.
  12. intervention stud$.mp.
  13. control group$.mp. or Control Groups/
  14. placebo$.mp. or PLACEBOS/
  15. evaluation stud$.mp.
  16. 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 15

For case–control and cohort studies

  1. exp Case-Control Studies/
  2. exp Cohort Studies/
  3. 1 or 2

First aid

The following search strategy was used to search MEDLINE for overviews of reviews, systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The search strategy was adapted as necessary for the other databases.

  1. review.m_titl.
  2. systematic.m_titl.
  3. meta-analysis.m_titl.
  4. review.pt.
  5. meta-analysis.pt.
  6. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5
  7. limit 6 to humans
  8. (lay people or lay-people or laypeople or layperson$ or lay-person$ or lay person$).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  9. (bystander or by-stander).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  10. parents/ or fathers/ or mothers/ or single parent/ or persons/
  11. middle-aged.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  12. persons/ or legal guardians/
  13. adolescen$.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  14. adult$.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  15. Child$.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  16. (caregiver$ or care giver$ or care-giver$).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  17. (child minder$ or childminder$ or child-minder$ or childminding or child minding).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  18. Population/
  19. 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18
  20. child health services/ or “early intervention (education)”/ or preventive health services/
  21. child welfare.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  22. Learning/ed [Education]
  23. educational measurement.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  24. exp public health/ed
  25. train*.tw.
  26. learn*.tw.
  27. teach*.tw.
  28. instruct*.tw.
  29. counsel*.tw.
  30. question$.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  31. (educat$ or train$ or teach$ or Parent$ or counsel$).tw.
  32. 20 or 21 or 22 or 23 or 24 or 25 or 26 or 27 or 28 or 29 or 30 or 31
  33. accident$.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  34. emergencies.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  35. first aid/mt
  36. (“pediatric first aid” or “paediatric first aid”).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  37. health education/st
  38. (“first aid” or “first-aid” or First Aid or First-aid).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  39. basic life support.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  40. emergency treatment/ or first aid/ or resuscitation/
  41. (emergency medicine or emergency nursing).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  42. first aid.tw.
  43. first response.tw.
  44. prehospital care.mp. or pre-hospital care.tw. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  45. prehospital management.mp. or pre-hospital management.tw. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  46. Life support*.tw.
  47. bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation.mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  48. (“layperson CPR” or “lay-person CPR” or “layperson cardiopulmonary resuscication” or “lay-person cardiopulmonary resuscitation”).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  49. lifesupport*.tw.
  50. lifesaving.tw.
  51. first response/
  52. life support/
  53. life saving/
  54. life-saving/
  55. (“CPR” or “Cardio Pulmonary Resuscitation”).mp. or “Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation”/ [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  56. Cardio-Pulmonary Resuscitation/
  57. 33 or 34 or 35 or 36 or 37 or 38 or 39 or 40 or 41 or 42 or 43 or 44 or 45 or 46 or 47 or 48 or 49 or 50 or 51 or 52 or 53 or 54 or 55 or 56
  58. (First Aid cours$ or first-aid cours$).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  59. (First Aid Skill$ or first-aid skill$).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  60. (First Aid Training or First-Aid Training).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  61. Survival skill$.mp.
  62. (life support cours$ or life-support cours$).mp. [mp=title, abstract, heading word, table of contents, key concepts]
  63. 58 or 59 or 60 or 61 or 62
  64. 7 and 19 and 32 and 57 and 63

The above search was adapted to find primary studies published since the most comprehensive systematic review,352 substituting the terms below for study design terms in lines 1–6.

For experimental study designs

  1. randomi?ed controlled trial.pt.
  2. randomi?ed controlled trials.sh.
  3. randomi?ed controlled trial$.mp. or Randomi?ed Controlled Trials/
  4. random allocation.sh.
  5. double blind method.sh.
  6. single blind method.sh.
  7. Random allocation/
  8. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7
  9. clinical trials/ or Placebos/
  10. CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIAL.pt.
  11. Comparative stud$.mp.
  12. intervention stud$.mp. [mp=title, original title, abstract, name of substance word, subject heading word, unique identifier]
  13. control group$.mp. or Control Groups/
  14. placebo$.mp. or PLACEBOS/ [mp=title, original title, abstract, name of substance word, subject heading word, unique identifier]
  15. evaluation stud$.mp.
  16. 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 15

For case–control and cohort studies

  1. exp Case-Control Studies/
  2. exp Cohort Studies/
  3. 1 or 2

Falls

The following search strategy was used to search MEDLINE for studies with experimental or observational designs, and adapted as necessary for the other databases.

  1. exp Case-Control Studies/
  2. exp Cohort Studies/
  3. 1 or 2
  4. randomized controlled trial.pt.
  5. randomized controlled trials.sh.
  6. randomized controlled trial$.mp. or Randomized Controlled Trials/
  7. random allocation.sh.
  8. double blind method.sh.
  9. single blind method.sh.
  10. Random Allocation/
  11. 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 or 10
  12. Clinical Trials/ or Placebos/
  13. controlled clinical trial.pt.
  14. comparative stud$.mp.
  15. intervention stud$.mp.
  16. control group$.mp. or Control Groups/
  17. placebo$.mp. or Placebos/
  18. evaluation stud$.mp.
  19. 12 or 13 or 14 or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18
  20. exp child/
  21. exp infant/
  22. exp adolescent/
  23. exp minors/
  24. (child$ or adolesc$ or infan$ or young$ or toddl$ or bab$).tw.
  25. 20 or 21 or 22 or 23 or 24
  26. exp “early intervention (education)”/
  27. exp education/
  28. exp public health/ed
  29. exp parenting/
  30. exp counseling/
  31. (educat$ or train$ or teach$ or parent$ or counsel$ or supervis$).tw.
  32. 26 or 27 or 28 or 29 or 30 or 31
  33. exp accident prevention/ or injury prevention.tw.
  34. exp safety/
  35. exp safety management/
  36. safety practice$.tw.
  37. 33 or 34 or 35 or 36
  38. safety equipment.tw. or exp equipment safety/
  39. exp infant equipment/
  40. exp protective devices/ or (protect$ adj3 device$).tw.
  41. exp “interior design and furnishings”/
  42. ((stair$ or safety) adj3 gate$).tw.
  43. ((bab$ adj3 walk$) or (infant$ adj3 walk$)).tw.
  44. ((bab$ adj3 exercis$) or (bab$ adj3 bouncer$)).tw.
  45. (playpen$ or activity cent$ or play cent$).tw.
  46. (play$ adj3 equipment).tw.
  47. (cot$ or crib$).tw.
  48. (furniture adj3 corner adj3 cover$).tw.
  49. (trip adj3 (flex$ or cable$ or wire$ or lead$)).tw.
  50. ((high adj3 chair$) or highchair or (changing adj3 table$) or cradle$).tw.
  51. (pushchair$ or pram$ or stroller$).tw.
  52. ((child adj3 safety adj3 restraint$) or (safety adj3 harness$)).tw.
  53. ((((high or raised) and surface$) or bed$) adj3 (fall$ or drop$ or push$ or roll$)).tw.
  54. (window$ adj3 (safety or lock$ or guard$ or bar$ or catch$ or screen$ or restrict$ or limit$ or opening$)).tw.
  55. (child-proof or child proof or childproof).tw.
  56. (glass adj3 (safety or film)).tw.
  57. (garden$ adj3 (lock$ or restrict$ or access$)).tw.
  58. ((roof$ or rooves) adj3 (lock$ or restrict or access$)).tw.
  59. (bath$ adj3 (mat$ or decal$ or $slip$)).tw.
  60. (wet adj3 floor).tw.
  61. ((trip$ adj3 hazard$) or stumble$ or (lose adj3 balance)).tw.
  62. ((carpet$ or rug$) adj3 (fix$ or loose or trip$)).tw.
  63. ((floor$ or stair$ or step$) and $repair$).tw.
  64. (stair$ adj3 (light$ or safe$ or play$ or climb$ or trip$ or fall$)).tw.
  65. (banister$ or handrail$ or stair$ or railing$).tw.
  66. (furniture adj3 (climb$ or jump$ or play$ or fall$ or layout)).tw.
  67. (balcon$ adj3 fall$).tw.
  68. exp consumer product safety/
  69. or/38-68
  70. exp accidents/ or exp accidents, home/
  71. exp accidental falls/
  72. exp “wounds and injuries”/
  73. (accident$ or cut or cuts or bruis$ or fracture$ or wound$ or laceration$ or injur$).tw.
  74. or/70-73
  75. (3 or 11 or 19) and 25 and (32 or 37 or 69) and 74

Search terms for systematic reviews and meta-analyses were as above but with terms 1–19 replaced with:

  1. review.m_titl.
  2. systematic.m_titl.
  3. meta-analysis.m_titl.
  4. review.pt.
  5. meta-analysis.pt.
  6. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5

Poisoning

The following search strategy was used to search MEDLINE for overviews of reviews, systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The search strategy was adapted as necessary for the other databases.

  1. review.m_titl.
  2. systematic.m_titl.
  3. meta-analysis.m_titl.
  4. review.pt.
  5. meta-analysis.pt.
  6. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5
  7. limit 6 to humans
  8. exp child/
  9. exp infant/
  10. exp adolescent/
  11. exp minors/
  12. (child$ or adolesc$ or infan$ or young$ or toddl$ or bab$).tw.
  13. or/8-12
  14. exp “early intervention (education)”/
  15. exp education/
  16. exp public health/ed
  17. exp parenting/
  18. exp counseling/
  19. (educat$ or train$ or teach$ or parent$ or counsel$ or supervis$).tw.
  20. exp accident prevention/ or injury prevention.tw.
  21. exp safety/
  22. exp safety management/
  23. safety practice$.tw.
  24. safety equipment.tw. or exp equipment safety/
  25. exp infant equipment/
  26. exp protective devices/ or (protect$ adj3 device$).tw.
  27. exp “interior design and furnishings”/
  28. exp consumer product safety/
  29. exp drug storage/
  30. ((medicine$ or drug$) adj3 storage).tw.
  31. exp hazardous substances/ae, po or (hazardous adj3 substance$ adj3 storage).tw.
  32. exp household products/ae, po or (household adj3 product$ adj3 storage).tw.
  33. (((child adj3 resistant) or childproof) adj3 (closure$ or cap$ or container$)).tw.
  34. ((cupboard$ or cabinet$ or drawer$ or box$) adj3 ($lock$ or latch$)).tw.
  35. (medicine$ or cosmetics or ((clean$ or beauty or make-up or household or hazardous or industrial) adj3 (supplies or products or materials))).tw.
  36. ((toiletries or vitamin$ or cigarette$) adj3 (storage or cupboard$ or cabinet$ or drawer$ or box$ or reach or label$)).tw.
  37. ((toxi$ or pollutant$ or gas$) adj3 prevent$).tw.
  38. ((toxic or poison$) adj3 plant$ adj3 prevent$).tw.
  39. exp ipecac/
  40. (poison$ adj3 (control or sticker$ or telephone or number or emergenc$)).tw.
  41. or/14-40
  42. exp accidents/ or exp accidents, home/
  43. exp poisoning/
  44. exp “wounds and injuries”/
  45. (accident$ or poison$ or injur$ or ingest$ or swallow$ or inhal$).tw.
  46. or/42-45
  47. 7 and 13 and 41 and 46

The above search was adapted to find primary studies published since the most comprehensive systematic review,352 substituting the terms below for study design terms in lines 1–6.

For experimental study designs

  1. randomi?ed controlled trial.pt.
  2. randomi?ed controlled trials.sh.
  3. randomi?ed controlled trial$.mp. or Randomi?ed Controlled Trials/
  4. random allocation.sh.
  5. double blind method.sh.
  6. single blind method.sh.
  7. Random Allocation/
  8. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7
  9. Clinical Trials/ or Placebos/
  10. CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIAL.pt.
  11. comparative stud$.mp.
  12. intervention stud$.mp.
  13. control group$.mp. or Control Groups/
  14. placebo$.mp. or PLACEBOS/
  15. evaluation stud$.mp.
  16. 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 15

For case–control and cohort studies

  1. exp Case-Control Studies/
  2. exp Cohort Studies/
  3. 1 or 2

Scalds

The following search strategy was used to search MEDLINE for overviews of reviews, systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The search strategy was adapted as necessary for the other databases.

  1. review.m_titl.
  2. systematic.m_titl.
  3. meta-analysis.m_titl.
  4. review.pt.
  5. meta-analysis.pt.
  6. 4 or 1 or 3 or 2 or 5
  7. limit 6 to humans
  8. exp child/
  9. exp infant/
  10. exp adolescent/
  11. exp minors/
  12. (child$ or adolesc$ or infan$ or young$ or minor$ or toddl$ or bab$).tw.
  13. 8 or 11 or 10 or 9 or 12
  14. exp “early intervention (education)”/
  15. exp education/
  16. exp public health/ed
  17. exp parenting/
  18. expcounseling/
  19. training.tw.
  20. (edcat$ or train$ or teach$ or parent$ or counsel$).tw.
  21. 18 or 19 or 16 or 17 or 20 or 15 or 14
  22. exp accident prevention/ or injury prevention.tw.
  23. exp safety/
  24. exp safety management/
  25. safety practice$.tw.
  26. exp cookery/
  27. exp “cooking and eating utensils”/
  28. microwave.tw.
  29. hot water.tw.
  30. hot liquid.tw.
  31. hot drink$.tw.
  32. hot food.tw.
  33. (thermo$ or thermostat$).mp. or TMV.tw.
  34. safety equipment.tw. or exp equipment safety/
  35. exp infant equipment/
  36. exp protective devices/ or (protect$ adj3 device$).tw.
  37. (kettle* or teapot* or samovar* or coffee pot* or jug*).tw.
  38. (kettle$ adj3 (flex$ or cable$ or wire$)).tw.
  39. (cook$ adj3 guard$).tw.
  40. (oven$ or stove$ or grill$ or hob$).mp.
  41. (“saucepan$” or “sauce pan$” or “sauce-pan$”).tw.
  42. kettle.tw.
  43. (water adj3 temperature).mp.
  44. hot tap water.tw.
  45. bath$.tw.
  46. steam$.tw.
  47. hotfa*cet water.tw.
  48. water temperature.tw.
  49. cooker safety.tw.
  50. (“table cloth$” or “table-cloth$”).tw.
  51. exp heat/
  52. exp hot temperature/ae
  53. or/22-52
  54. exp bath/ae
  55. exp accidents/ or exp accidents, home/
  56. exp burns/
  57. exp “wounds and injuries”/
  58. (accident$ or burn$ or scald$ or wound$ or injur$).tw.
  59. or/54-58
  60. 7 and 13 and (21 or 53) and 59

The above search was adapted to find primary studies published since the most comprehensive systematic review,352 substituting the terms below for study design terms in lines 1–6.

For experimental study designs

  1. randomi?ed controlled trial.pt.
  2. randomi?ed controlled trials.sh.
  3. randomi?ed controlled trial$.mp. or Randomi?ed Controlled Trials/
  4. random allocation.sh.
  5. double blind method.sh.
  6. single blind method.sh.
  7. Random Allocation/
  8. 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7
  9. Clinical Trials/ or Placebos/
  10. CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIAL.pt.
  11. comparative stud$.mp.
  12. intervention stud$.mp.
  13. control group$.mp. or Control Groups/
  14. placebo$.mp. or PLACEBOS/
  15. evaluation stud$.mp.
  16. 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 15

For case–control and cohort studies

  1. exp Case-Control Studies/
  2. exp Cohort Studies/
  3. 1 or 2

Other sources searched for overviews of reviews and primary studies for study H

From Wynn P, Zou K, Young B, Majsak-Newman G, Hawkins A, Kay B, Mhizha-Murira J, Kendrick D. Prevention of childhood poisoning in the home: overview of systematic reviews and a systematic review of primary studies. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion 2016;23:2–28390 and Achana FA, Sutton AJ, Kendrick D, Wynn P, Young B, Jones DR, et al. (2015) The effectiveness of different interventions to promote poison prevention behaviours in households with children: a network meta-analysis. PLOS ONE 10(4): e0121122.449 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121122

Other electronic sourcesHand searching
Cochrane Database of Systematic ReviewsInjury Prevention (journal)
Database of Abstracts of Reviews of EffectsAbstracts from World Conferences on Injury Prevention and Controla
NHS Economic Evaluation Database and Health Technology Assessment databaseReference lists of included overviews of reviews, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and primary studies
Injury Prevention Research Centers at the Centers for Disease Control (USA)
NICE (UK)
Children’s Safety Network (USA)
International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention (international)
Child Accident Prevention Trust (UK)
RoSPA (UK)
Injury Control Resource Information Network (USA)
National Injury Surveillance Unit (Australia)
SafetyLit (USA)
National Research Register (UK) (up to September 2007)
UK Clinical Research Network Portfolio
a

Not searched for the first aid overview.

Note

See Table 69 for dates of searches.

Other sources searched for study I

Other electronic sourcesHand searching (to June 2009)
Injury Prevention Research Centers at the Centers for Disease Control (USA)Abstracts from the First to Ninth World Conferences on Injury Prevention and Control
Health Development Agency (UK) (up to March 2005)Injury Prevention (journal) (to March 2009)
NICE (UK)Reference lists of articles included in the review and of published systematic reviews
Children’s Safety Network (USA)
International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention (international)
Child Accident Prevention Trust (UK)
Injury Control Resource Information Network (USA)
National Injury Surveillance Unit (Australia)
SafetyLit (USA)
National Research Register (UK) (up to September 2007)
UK Clinical Research Network Portfolio
metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials
Index to Theses

Search strategy for study I

The following search strategy was used to search MEDLINE. The search strategy was adapted as necessary for the other databases.

  1. randomized controlled trial.pt.
  2. exp Randomized Controlled Trial/
  3. randomi?ed controlled trial*.mp.
  4. exp Random Allocation/
  5. exp Double-Blind Method/
  6. exp Single-Blind Method/
  7. exp Clinical Trial/
  8. controlled clinical trial.pt.
  9. comparative stud*.mp.
  10. intervention stud*.mp.
  11. control group*.mp.
  12. placebo*.mp.
  13. evaluation stud*.mp.
  14. placebo*.mp.
  15. exp Placebos/
  16. exp control groups/
  17. random allocation.mp.
  18. or/1-17
  19. Humans/
  20. 18 and 19
  21. exp Child/
  22. exp Infant/
  23. exp Adolescent/
  24. exp Minors/
  25. (child* or adolesc* or infan* or young* or minor* or toddl* or baby or babies).mp.
  26. or/21-25
  27. exp “Early Intervention (Education)”/
  28. exp Education/
  29. exp Patient Education as Topic/
  30. exp Health Education/
  31. public health/ed
  32. exp Parenting/
  33. exp Counseling/
  34. training.mp.
  35. (educat* or train* or teach* or parent* or counsel*).mp.
  36. or/27-35
  37. exp Accident Prevention/
  38. exp Safety/
  39. exp Safety Management/
  40. safety practice*.mp.
  41. exp Drug Storage/
  42. exp Hazardous Substances/po, ae [Poisoning, Adverse Effects]
  43. or/37-42
  44. exp Equipment Safety/
  45. (safety adj3 equipment).mp.
  46. exp Infant Equipment/
  47. exp Protective Devices/
  48. (fireguard* or fire-guard*).mp.
  49. (stair* adj3 gate*).mp.
  50. (bab* adj3 walk*).mp.
  51. (protect* adj3 device*).mp.
  52. (kettle* adj3 (flex* or cable* or wire*)).mp.
  53. (cook* adj3 guard*).mp.
  54. (smok* adj3 (alarm* or detect*)).mp.
  55. or/44-54
  56. exp Accidents/
  57. exp Accidents, Home/
  58. exp Burns, Chemical/
  59. exp Eye Burns/
  60. exp Burns/
  61. exp Burns, Inhalation/
  62. exp Burns, Electric/
  63. exp Smoke/
  64. exp Smoke Inhalation Injury/
  65. exp Poisoning/
  66. exp Carbon Monoxide Poisoning/
  67. exp “Wounds and Injuries”/
  68. (accident* or burn* or scald* or asphyx* or chok* or cut* or suffocat* or poison* or fracture* or wound* or injur*).mp.
  69. exp Fractures, Bone/
  70. exp Asphyxia/
  71. suffocat*.mp.
  72. exp Ipecac/
  73. exp Drowning/
  74. exp Near Drowning/
  75. or/56-74
  76. 20 and 26
  77. 36 or 43 or 55
  78. 75 and 76 and 77
  79. (2004* or 2005* or 2006* or 2007* or 2008* or 2009*).ed.
  80. 78 and 79

Base-case model inputs for the decision analysis for smoke alarms for study K

General base-case model inputs

Parameter descriptionPoint estimate (95% CrI)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Cohort settings
Total number of households in the UK26,442,100Office for National Statistics502
Probabilities of possessing a functioning smoke alarms following each intervention
(1) Usual care0.695 (0.647 to 0.740)Posterior distribution inputted directly from NMANMA by Cooper et al.374
(2) Education0.671 (0.207 to 0.942)As aboveAs above
(3) Education + free/low-cost equipment0.876 (0.459 to 0.986)As aboveAs above
(4) Education + free/low-cost equipment + home safety inspection0.852 (0.448 to 0.983)As aboveAs above
(5) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting0.859 (0.400 to 0.982)As aboveAs above
(6) Education + home safety inspection0.880 (0.413 to 0.991)As aboveAs above
(7) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting + home safety inspection0.941 (0.651 to 0.993)As aboveAs above
Smoke alarm
Probability of accepting intervention (assumed same for all interventions)0.9FixedAssumption based on studies included in NMA374
Probability of a household having a functioning smoke alarm (baseline)0.860Beta (n = 18,386)Department for Communities and Local Government377 (Table 2.3)
Probability of owning a smoke alarm with a battery life of 1 year0.750Beta (n = 15,850)Office of the Deputy Prime Minister376 (Table 5.3)
Probability of testing smoke alarm at least once a year0.850Beta (n = 18,372)Office of the Deputy Prime Minister376 (Figure 5.1)
Probability of testing smoke alarm less than once a year0.02Beta (n = 18,372)Office of the Deputy Prime Minister376 (Figure 5.1)
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Probability of a fire
Probability of a fire when functioning smoke alarms presentFires when smoke alarm was present, operated and raised or not the alarm = 20,706 (out of 43,451 fires); assuming that fires occurred in different dwellings: 20,706/26,442,100 = 0.000783Beta (n = 26,442,100)Department for Communities and Local Government377 (Table 2.4)
Probability of a fire when non-functioning smoke alarms presentFires when smoke alarm was present but did not operate = 7854 (out of 43,451 fires); assuming that fires occurred in different dwellings: 7854/26,442,100 = 0.000297Beta (n = 26,442,100)Department for Communities and Local Government377 (Table 2.4)
Probability of a fire when no smoke alarms present or unspecifiedFires when smoke alarm was absent or unspecified = 14,891 (out of 43,451 fires); assuming that fires occurred in different dwellings: 14,891/26,442,100 = 0.000563Beta (n = 26,442,100)Department for Communities and Local Government377 (Table 2.4)
Probability of inside household fire being attended by the fire and rescue service0.15Beta (n = 272)Office of the Deputy Prime Minister376 (Table 3.4)
Probability of injury or fatality
Probability of a fatality following a fire when functioning smoke alarm presentFires when smoke alarm was present, operated and raised or not the alarm and there were fatal casualties = 122 (out of 287 casualties); 122/20,706 = 0.005892Beta (n = 20,706)Department for Communities and Local Government377 (Table 2.4)
Probability of a fatality following a fire when non-functioning or no smoke alarmFires when smoke alarm was present but did not operate or was absent and there were fatal casualties = 165 (out of 287 casualties); 165/(7854 + 14,891) = 0.007254Beta (n = 22,745)Department for Communities and Local Government377 (Table 2.4)
Probability of no injury following a house fire with ‘functioning’ and ‘no/non-functioning’ smoke alarmsProbability of injury when functional smoke alarm present = 0.11; therefore, the probability of no injury with ‘functioning’ smoke alarm = 1 – 0.11 = 0.89
Probability of injury when functional smoke alarm absent = 0.125; therefore, the probability of no injury without ‘functioning’ smoke alarm = 1 – 0.125 = 0.875		Beta (n = 43,451)Istre et al.503 (Table 2)
Probability that a child aged 0–4 years incurs a minor, moderate or severe injury given a burn injury, following a house fireMinor injury 0.368; moderate injury 0.158; severe injury (requires inpatient stay in an intensive care unit of > 5 days) 0.474Multinomial (n = 19)Mr Kenn Dunn, University Hospital of South Manchester, 8 September 2010, personal communication
Additional proportion of burn unit costs incurred in an intensive therapy unit0.4 (assumption SE = 0.1)Beta (alpha = 9.2, beta = 13.8)Assumption based on analysis in Hemington-Gorse et al.504
Probability of having a precautionary check-up following a fire0.437Beta (n = 12,935)Department for Communities and Local Government505 (Table 8)
Probability of all-cause mortality for a UK citizen aged from 0 to 100 years (for use in each decision model cycle)Age dependentOffice for National Statistics 2009506

Base-case model inputs for quality-of-life weights and costs (updated to 2012 prices)

Model inputPoint estimate (SE)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Intervention costs
Cost of home safety inspection based on cost of local authority home care worker for 40 minutes of their time including travel£23 per hour, thus 40 minutes = £15.33FixedCurtis30
Cost of smoke alarm giveaway£4.89FixedJane Zdanowska, Nottinghamshire County Council, 28 September 2010, personal communication
Cost of providing education programme per household accepting the intervention – based on cost of home care worker for 20 minutes of their time including travelAssume £20 per hour, thus 20 minutes = £6.66FixedAssumption
Fixed cost of an intervention scheme – programme co-ordinationConsidering a simulated cohort of 100,000 households =  £79,529FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Additional administrative cost incurred for each household that accepts the interventionDistribution costs divided by the number of households in the cohort and updated to 2012 prices = £0.40FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Cost of having the smoke alarm installedInstallation costs divided by the number of smoke alarms installed and updated to 2012 prices = £11.83FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Health-care costs/resource use
Mean number of minutes of paramedic unit – assumed only attends when severe injuries49.5Normal [variance = 26.32 (assumption)]Curtis508
Mean number of minutes of emergency ambulance – assumed only attends when moderate injuries38.6Normal [variance = 26.32 (assumption)]Curtis508
Mean cost per minute of a paramedic unit£8.00FixedCurtis508 – updated to 2012 prices
Mean cost per minute of an emergency ambulance£7.89FixedCurtis508 – updated to 2012 prices
Mean cost of a minor injury£1206 (£209)Log-normalMr Kenn Dunn, University Hospital of South Manchester, 8 September 2010, personal communication
Mean cost of a moderate injury£2855 (£1415)Log-normalAs above
Mean cost of a severe injury£64,939 (£32,019)Log-normalAs above
Mean incurred NHS costs of disability per year£379.50 (£85.50)Gamma (alpha = 16, beta = 0.047)Medical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication) – updated to 2012 prices
Mean cost of precautionary check-up£68.80 (£21.50)NormalDepartment of Health509
Out-of-pocket/private costs
Cost of smoke alarm 1-year battery to individual£1.54Fixedwww.safelincs.co.uk (accessed 3 November 2016)
Total cost of damage caused by the fire£1298 (£245)Gamma (alpha = 16, beta = 0.016)Office of the Deputy Prime Minister510 (Table 3.8) – updated to 2012 prices
Cost of a fatality following a household fire – includes coroner and autopsy costs£205.50FixedGinnelly et al.347 (Table 1) – updated to 2012 prices
Law enforcement and rescue service costs
Cost of police attending – assumed only attend when severe injuries£173.90FixedGinnelly et al.347 (Table 1) – updated to 2012 prices
Cost of fire and rescue service attending a domestic fire£3386FixedOffice of the Deputy Prime Minister511 (Table 3.6) – updated to 2012 prices
Utility parameters per cycle
Deficit in utilities for minor injury (DRG 460 + 459)0.049FixedSanchez et al.512
Deficit in utilities for moderate injury (DRG 458 + 457)0.069FixedSanchez et al.512
Deficit in utilities for severe injury (DRG 472)0.107FixedSanchez et al.512
Deficit in utilities following a disability0.1 (0.025)Beta (alpha = 14.3, beta = 128.7)Medical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication)
General background utilities for non-injured population< 25 years 0.94 (SD 0.12); 25–34 years 0.93 (SD 0.15); 35–44 years 0.91 (SD 0.16); 45–54 years 0.85 (SD 0.25); 55–64 years 0.80 (SD 0.26); 65–74 years 0.78 (SD 0.26); > 75 years 0.73 (SD 0.27)NormalKind et al.375

DRG, diagnosis-related group.

Base-case model inputs for the decision analysis for safe hot tap water temperatures for study K

General base-case model inputs

Model inputPoint estimate (95% CrI)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Cohort settings
Total number of households in the UK26,442,100Office for National Statistics502
Probabilities of safe hot water following each intervention
(1) Usual care0.35 (0.30 to 0.40)Posterior distribution inputted directly from NMAFrom NMA of safe hot water interventions
(2) Education0.48 (0.34 to 0.63)As aboveAs above
(3) Education + thermometer0.35 (0.19 to 0.54)As aboveAs above
(4) Education + free/low-cost not scald equipment + home safety inspection0.41 (0.20 to 0.66)As aboveAs above
(5) Education + thermometer + home safety inspection0.35 (0.19 to 0.55)As aboveAs above
(6) Education + TMV + fitting0.95 (0.66 to 1.00)As aboveAs above
(7) Education + TMV + fitting + home safety inspection0.27 (0.04 to 0.79)As aboveAs above
(8) Education + home safety inspection0.45 (0.15 to 0.79)As aboveAs above
(9) Education + free/low-cost not scald equipment + fitting + home safety inspection0.49 (0.16 to 0.78)As aboveAs above
Safe hot water
Probability of accepting intervention (assumed same for all interventions)0.74Beta (n = 62)Kendrick et al.276
Probability that a household has safe hot water baseline0.15 (0.12 to 0.19)Meta-analysis of trials
Number of children per household1.8
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Probability of a scald
Probability of a scald when safe hot water using TMV0Assumption
Probability of a scald when safe hot water using ‘other’ interventions0.00005710% of probability of scald when no safe hot waterAssumption
Probability of a scald when no safe hot water0.00057Beta (n = 3,486,469) assumes 1.8 children per householdPhillips et al.140 and Office for National Statistics378
Probability move from safe hot water to no safe hot water at the end of a cycle0Assumption
Probability move from no safe hot water to safe hot water at the end of a cycle0.13Beta (n = 62)Kendrick et al.276
Probability of an injury or a fatality
Probability of a fatality following a scald0NAOffice for National Statistics513
Probability of a child aged 0–4 years attending an ED with a scald but not admitted to hospital0.23Beta (n = 653)Philips et al. 2011140
Probability of a child aged 0–4 years incurring a minor, moderate or severe injury given a scald injuryMinor injury 0.21; moderate injury 0.68; severe injury (requires inpatient stay in an intensive care unit of > 5 days) 0.11Multinomial (n = 1107)Mr Ken Dunn, South Manchester University Hospital, 8 September 2010, personal communication
Probability of all-cause mortality for a UK citizen aged from 0 to 100 years (for use in each decision model cycle)Age dependentOffice for National Statistics506

NA, not applicable.

Base-case model inputs for quality-of-life weights and costs (updated to 2012 prices) for interventions to promote safe hot tap water temperatures

Model inputPoint estimate (SE)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Intervention costs
Cost of home safety inspection based on cost of local authority home care worker for 40 minutes of their time including travel£23 per hour, thus 40 minutes = £15.33FixedCurtis30
Cost of thermometer giveaway£0.83FixedKatcher et al.272
Cost of TMV including fitting£12.37 (assuming part of housing association or local authority new build or refurbishment)FixedPhillips et al.140
Cost of providing education programme per household accepting the intervention – based on cost of home care worker for 20 minutes of their time including travelAssuming £20 per hour, thus 20 minutes = £6.66FixedAssumption
Fixed cost of an intervention scheme – programme co-ordinationConsidering a simulated cohort of 100,000 households =  £79,529FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Additional administrative cost incurred for each household that accepts the interventionDistribution costs divided by the number of households in the cohort and updated to 2012 prices = £0.40FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Health-care costs/resource use
Mean cost of attending an ED but discharged without admission£183 (£18.25)Log-normalDepartment of Health31
Mean cost of minor scald – no inpatient stay£1086 (£8)Log-normalMr Ken Dunn, South Manchester University Hospital, 8 September 2010, personal communication
Mean cost of moderate scald – inpatient stay ≤ 5 days£14,940 (£102)Log-normalMr Ken Dunn, South Manchester University Hospital, 8 September 2010, personal communication
Mean cost of severe scald – inpatient stay > 5 days£41,157 (£2518)Log-normalMr Ken Dunn, South Manchester University Hospital, 8 September 2010, personal communication
Mean incurred NHS costs of disability per year£379.50 (£85.50)Gamma (alpha = 16, beta = 0.047)Medical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication)367 – updated to 2012 prices
Utility parameters per cycle
Deficit in utilities for minor injury/no inpatient stay (DRG 460)0.060FixedSanchez et al.512
Deficit in utilities for minor injury/inpatient stay (DRG 459)0.090FixedSanchez et al.512
Deficit in utilities for moderate injury (DRG 458 + 457)0.093FixedSanchez et al.512
Deficit in utilities for severe injury (DRG 472)0.137FixedSanchez et al.512
Deficit in utilities following a disability per year0.1 (0.025)Beta (alpha = 14.3, beta = 128.7)Medical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication)
General background utilities for non-injured population< 25 years 0.94 (SD 0.12); 25–34 years 0.93 (SD 0.15); 35–44 years 0.91 (SD 0.16); 45–54 years 0.85 (SD 0.25); 55–64 years 0.80 (SD 0.26); 65–74 years 0.78 (SD 0.26); > 75 years 0.73 (SD 0.27)NormalKind et al.71

DRG, diagnosis-related group.

Base-case model inputs for the decision analysis for safety gates to prevent stairway falls for study K

General base-case model inputs

Model inputPoint estimate (95% CrI)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Probabilities of possessing a fitted safety gate following each intervention
(1) Usual care0.64 (0.60 to 0.68)Posterior distribution is inputted directly from NMAHubbard et al.446
(2) Education0.73 (0.56 to 0.86)As aboveAs above
(3) Education + free/low-cost equipment0.75 (0.56 to 0.88)As aboveAs above
(4) Education + free/low-cost equipment + home safety inspection0.72 (0.46 to 0.89)As aboveAs above
(5) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting0.75 (0.49 to 0.91)As aboveAs above
(6) Education + home safety inspection0.74 (0.33 to 0.95)As aboveAs above
(7) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting + home safety inspection0.93 (0.75 to 0.98)As aboveAs above
Safety gate
Baseline probability that a household has a fitted safety gate0.56Normal on logit scaleMeta-analysis of baseline data and control groups from NMA studies with usual care in control arm
Probability of accepting the intervention0.76Normal on logit scaleMeta-analysis of participation rates recorded in NMA studies
No of children per household1Assumption
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Number of falls in children aged 0–4 yearsMean 41,246 (SE 84.28)NormalHASS 2002 (extracts from the Department of Trade and Industry’s Home and Leisure Accident Surveillance System (HASS/LASS), Helen Shaw, RoSPA, 1 May 2014, personal communication). Stairway falls 2002 – lower limit 41,081 and upper limit 41,411 for number of falls
Probability of a fallNumber of falls/3,486,469Office for National Statistics514
Relative risk of a fall downstairs when safety gate is in use vs. no safety gateLn(OR) = 0.916, SE[Ln(OR)] = 0.14NormalData from KCS study A: cases compared with community controls adjusted analysis OR (for did not use safety gate vs. closed safety gate) = 2.50 (95% CI 1.90 to 3.29)
Probability of using an emergency ambulance0.242FixedHospital Episode Statistics (2012)2 – 24.2% of all cases arrived by emergency transfer (ambulance/helicopter); used for all severities of injuries
Probability of a mild fall injury (attends ED but not admitted)2604/2724 = 0.9560HASS 2002 (extracts from the Department of Trade and Industry’s Home and Leisure Accident Surveillance System (HASS/LASS), Helen Shaw, RoSPA, 1 May 2014, personal communication)
Probability of a moderate fall injury (attends ED and admitted for < 2 days)88/2724 = 0.0323Multinomial
Probability of a severe fall injury (attends ED and admitted for ≥ 2 days) but not long-term disability(32 – 2)/2724 = 0.0110Severe injuries with estimated number with long-term disability subtracted, i.e. 0.000652 × 2724 = 1.78 ≈ 2
Probability of a severe fall injury (attends ED and admitted for ≥ 2 days) and a long-term disability0.000652SMARTRISK121
Probability of a fatal fall injury0.000000163Office for National Statistics – England and Wales mortality statistics: four stairway deaths in those aged 0–4 years in 2002–12, average of 0.57 per year;515 n = 3,496,750 children aged 0–4 year olds in 2011 census489
Probability that after a fall the household keeps the safety gate already in place0.95Uniform(0.9,1)Assumption
Probability that after a fall the household remains in the no safety gate arm0.56Uniform(0.5,0.62)Based on Morrongiello and Schwebel516

Base-case model inputs for quality-of-life weights and costs (updated to 2012 prices)

Model inputPoint estimate (SE)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Intervention costs
Cost of home safety inspection based on cost of health visitor for 5 minutes of their time£44 per hour, thus 5 minutes = £3.67FixedCurtis30
Cost of safety equipment (safety gates × 2)£38.30FixedNICE PH30 costing template27 (£18 per safety gate) updated to 2012 prices
Cost of installation18 minutes to fit a safety gate at a cost of £24.93 per hour = £7.48FixedGary Smith, Groundwork Creswell, 29 September 2014, personal communication
Cost of providing education programme per household accepting the intervention – based on cost of home care worker for 5 minutes of their time during a routine visitAssuming £44 per hour, thus 5 minutes = £3.67FixedAssumption (based on Curtis30)
Fixed cost of an intervention scheme – programme co-ordinationConsidering a simulated cohort of 100,000 households = £79,529FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Cost of travel (time and travel) when intervention is provided in the home£5FixedNottingham home safety scheme hourly rate including on-costs and vehicle costs = £25 (estimated through Gary Smith, Ground work Creswell, 29 September 2014, personal communication) to install five items of safety equipment; one-fifth of hourly rate was allocated to safety gates
Additional administrative cost incurred for each household that accepts the interventionDistribution costs divided by the number of households in the cohort and updated to 2012 prices = £0.40FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Cost of emergency transfers included for 25.4% of all falls injuries£263 (£21.48)GammaCurtis30
Cost of ED treatment of cases not leading to hospital inpatient stay (minor injury)£112 (£27.46)GammaCurtis30
Cost of ED treatment for cases leading to hospital inpatient stay (moderate or severe injury)£146 (£42.22)GammaCurtis30
Cost of a non-elective short (< 2 days) inpatient admission£586 (£223.70)GammaCurtis30
Cost of a non-elective long (≥ 2 days) inpatient admission£2461 (£810.37)GammaCurtis30
Annual cost of chronic ill health£380.30 (£98.44)GammaMedical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication) – updated to 2012 prices
Cost of fatal injury£205.50FixedGinelly et al.347 – reported in functional smoke alarm model373
Utility parameters per cycle
Utility deficit for minor injury0.05Uniform(0,0.1)Assumption – half moderate utility deficit
Utility deficit for moderate injury0.10FixedUtility decrement 0.10 for falls injury in children aged 0–4 years.517 Brussoni et al.143 looked at all injuries for ages 0–16 years using 1-month change in EQ-5D-3L
Utility deficit for severe injury0.20Uniform(0.1,0.3)Assumption – double moderate and long-term disability
Utility deficit associated with disability per year0.10 (0.025)BetaMedical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication)
General background utilities for non-injured population< 25 years 0.94 (SD 0.12); 25–34 years 0.93 (SD 0.15); 35–44 years 0.91 (SD 0.16); 45–54 years 0.85 (SD 0.25); 55–64 years 0.80 (SD 0.26); 65–74 years 0.78 (SD 0.26); > 75 years 0.73 (SD 0.27)NormalKind et al.375

Base-case model inputs for the decision analysis for safe storage of medicines for study K

General base-case model inputs

Model inputPoint estimate (95% CrI)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Probabilities of safe storage of medicines following each intervention
(1) Usual care0.90 (0.84 to 0.94)Posterior distribution inputted directly from NMA analysisNMA449
(2) Education0.87 (0.83 to 0.91)As aboveAs above
(3) Education + free/low-cost equipment0.95 (0.89 to 0.98)As aboveAs above
(4) Education + free/low-cost equipment + home safety inspection0.90 (0.76 to 0.96)As aboveAs above
(5) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting0.90 (0.81 to 0.96)As aboveAs above
(6) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting + home safety inspection0.93 (0.83 to 0.97)As aboveAs above
(7) Free/low-cost equipment0.94 (0.78 to 0.98)As aboveAs above
Safe storage of medicine
Baseline prevalence of safe storage of medicines0.75Beta (n = 2033)Prevalence rate among community controls
Probability of accepting the intervention0.90FixedAssumption based on value in functional smoke alarm model
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Probability of accidental exposure/ingestion0.00181Beta (n = 3,599,180)Poisoning cases in preschool children = 10,837, UK preschool population in 2005–9 = 3,599,180.451 The numerator (n = 10,837 × 0.6 = 6502) was derived based on information90 suggesting that 1316 (60%) of the 2193 medically reported poisonings identified in the THIN database were due to ingestion of a medicinal substance
Relative risk of exposure to a medicinal substanceLn(OR) = –0.60 (SE 0.14)NormalFrom KCS study A: OR 1.83 (95% CI 1.38 to 2.42)
Probability of using emergency ambulance0.242FixedHospital Episode Statistics518 – 24.2% of all cases arrived by emergency transfer (ambulance/helicopter)
Probability of inpatient admission following a medicinal poisoning injury (ICD-10: X40–X44)0.6992Beta (n = 6502)Hospital Episode Statistics518 – number of poisoning cases (X40–X44) admitted in 0- to 4-year-olds (period 2012–13) in England = 3909. Scaled up by a factor of 1.163 (i.e. 3909 × 1.163 = 4546 cases for the whole of the UK) based on mid-2012 population estimates for UK and England519
Probability of severe injury0.00191Beta (n = 4546)Mowry et al.520 (Table 13) – 1.91% of major poisoning cases (across all age groups) resulted in a permanent health condition; numerator = 0.019 × 4546 = 86
Probability of fatal injury0.00116Beta (n = 87)UK mortality statistics513 – one fatality from medicinal poisonings in 0- to 4-year-olds (assumed fatality occurred after a long inpatient stay)
UK mortality statisticsNormalOffice for National Statistics506

ICD-10, International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision; THIN, The Health Improvement Network.

Base-case model inputs for quality-of-life weights and costs (updated to 2012 prices)

Model inputPoint estimate (SE)Parameter distributionSource
Stage 1: Intervention model
Intervention costs
Cost of home safety inspection based on cost of local authority home care worker for 40 minutes of their time including travel£23 per hour, thus 40 minutes = £15.33FixedCurtis30
Cost of safety equipment (cupboard locks ×2) updated to 2012 prices£6.80 (range £4.54–13.62)FixedNICE PH30 costing template27
Cost of installation£11.83FixedSame as smoke alarms
Cost of providing education programme per household accepting the intervention – based on cost of home care worker for 20 minutes of their time including travelAssume £20 per hour, thus 20 minutes = £11.33FixedAssumption
Fixed cost of an intervention scheme – programme co-ordinationConsidering a simulated cohort of 100,000 households = £79,529FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Additional administrative cost incurred for each household that accepts the interventionDistribution costs divided by the number of households in the cohort and updated to 2012 prices = £0.40FixedDiGuiseppi et al.507 – updated to 2012 prices
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Cost of emergency transfers£263 (£21.48)GammaCurtis30
Cost of ED treatment of cases not leading to hospital inpatient stay (minor injury)£112 (£27.41)GammaCurtis30
Cost of ED treatment of cases leading to hospital inpatient stay (major injury)£146 (£42.22)GammaCurtis30
Cost of a non-elective short (< 2 days) inpatient admission£586 (£223.70)GammaCurtis30
Cost of a non-elective long (≥ 2 days) inpatient admission£2461 (£810.37)GammaCurtis30
Annual cost of chronic ill health£386.42 (£96.72)GammaMedical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication)
Cost of fatal injury£205.50FixedGinelly et al.347 – reported in functional smoke alarm model
Cost of 11.7-minute GP consultation£43FixedCurtis30
Cost of a health visitor visit lasting 40 minutes for severe poisonings (i.e. those that result in a permanent injury)£44 (£15.56)GammaCurtis30
Utility parameters per cycle
Utility deficit for minor injury0.03 (0.003)BetaUtility decrement of 0.03 for poisoning injury;125 assumed SE is 10% of the mean521,522
Utility deficit for moderate injury0.046 (0.0046)BetaUtility decrement of 0.046 for poisoning injury;517 assumed SE is 10% of the mean521,522
Utility deficit for severe injury0.146 (0.0146)BetaUtility decrement of 0.046 for poisoning injury517 and decrement associated with disability of 0.1 from the HALO study (J Nicholl, personal communication); assumed SE is 10% of mean521,522
Utility deficit associated with disability per year0.10 (0.025)BetaMedical Care Research Unit (J Nicholl, personal communication)
General background utilities for non-injured population< 25 years 0.94 (SD 0.12); 25–34 years 0.93 (SD 0.15); 35–44 years 0.91 (SD 0.16); 45–54 years 0.85 (SD 0.25); 55–64 years 0.80 (SD 0.26); 65–74 years 0.78 (SD 0.26); > 75 years 0.73 (SD 0.27)NormalKind et al.375

Base-case model inputs for the decision analysis for safe storage of household products for study K

Note that the base-case model inputs for quality-of-life weights and costs are the same as those used for the safe storage of medicines in Base-case model inputs for the decision analysis for safe storage of medicines for study K.

General base-case model inputs

Model inputPoint estimate (95% CrI)Parameter distributionSource of information
Stage 1: Intervention model
All parameters are the same as for medicinal poisoning except for those below
Probabilities of safe storage of non-medicinal poisons
(1) Usual care0.608 (0.566 to 0.649)Posterior distribution inputted directly from NMANMA449
(2) Education0.660 (0.518 to 0.789)As aboveAs above
(3) Education + free/low-cost equipment0.779 (0.584 to 0.895)As aboveAs above
(4) Education + free/low-cost equipment + home safety inspection0.799 (0.640 to 0.915)As aboveAs above
(5) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting0.676 (0.430 to 0.868)As aboveAs above
(6) Education + free/low-cost equipment + fitting + home safety inspection0.803 (0.453 to 0.960)As aboveAs above
(7) Free/low-cost equipment0.403 (0.003 to 0.961)As aboveAs above
Stages 2 and 3: Preschool and long-term model
Probability of safe storage of non-medicines0.454Beta (n = 2320)Prevalence rate among community controls from study A
Relative risk of exposure to a non-medicinal substance comparing children with a poisoning with community controlsOR 0.77 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.99)Normal on log odds scaleStudy A: community controls adjusted analysis
Probability of accidental exposure/ingestion0.0012Beta (n = 3,599,180)Orton et al.,451 Tyrrell et al.90
Probability of inpatient admission following a non-medicinal poisoning injury (ICD-10: X45–X49)1377 poisoning cases (X45–X49) admitted in 0- to 4-year-olds in England. Scaled up by 1.163 based on mid-2012 population for the UK: (1377 × 1.16)/4335.8 = 0.368BetaHealth and Social Care Information Centre,518 Office for National Statistics519

ICD-10, International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision.

Copyright © Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2017. This work was produced by Kendrick et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary of State for Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes of private research and study and extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in professional journals provided that suitable acknowledgement is made and the reproduction is not associated with any form of advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should be addressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University of Southampton Science Park, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.

Included under terms of UK Non-commercial Government License.

Bookshelf ID: NBK447046
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