The current extinction crisis is of human making, and any favorable resolution of that biodiversity crisis--among the most dire in the 4-billion-year history of Earth--will have to be initiated by mankind. Little time remains for the public, corporations, and governments to awaken to the magnitude of what is at stake. This book aims to assist that critical educational mission, synthesizing recent scientific information and ideas about threats to biodiversity in the past, present, and projected future.

This is the second volume from the In the Light of Evolution series, based on a series of Arthur M. Sackler colloquia, and designed to promote the evolutionary sciences. Each installment explores evolutionary perspectives on a particular biological topic that is scientifically intriguing but also has special relevance to contemporary societal issues or challenges. Individually and collectively, the ILE series aims to interpret phenomena in various areas of biology through the lens of evolution, address some of the most intellectually engaging as well as pragmatically important societal issues of our times, and foster a greater appreciation of evolutionary biology as a consolidating foundation for the life sciences.

Contents

• THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
• Arthur M. Sackler, M.D. 1913-1987
• Preface to the In the Light of Evolution Series
• Preface to In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction
• Part I. CONTEMPORARY PATTERNS AND PROCESSES IN ANIMALS
  • 1. Ecological Extinction and Evolution in the Brave New Ocean
    • ESTUARIES AND COASTAL SEAS
    • CONTINENTAL SHELVES
    • THE OPEN OCEAN PELAGIC REALM
    • CORAL REEFS
    • THE FUTURE OCEAN
    • HOW CAN WE STOP THE DEGRADATION OF THE OCEANS?
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 2. Are We in the Midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction? A View from the World of Amphibians
    • FIVE MASS EXTINCTIONS
    • A SIXTH EXTINCTION?
    • AMPHIBIANS IN CRISIS
    • RANA IN THE SIERRA NEVADA OF CALIFORNIA
    • COMMON THEMES IN AMPHIBIAN DECLINES
    • IS GLOBAL WARMING A REAL EXTINCTION THREAT?
    • WHAT WILL WE LOSE?
    • WHAT IS THE PRINCIPAL CAUSE OF THE PRESENT EXTINCTION SPASM?
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 3. Patterns of Biodiversity and Endemism on Indo-West Pacific Coral Reefs
    • PATTERNS OF CORAL REEF DIVERSITY
    • EXPLANATIONS OF IWP DIVERSITY GRADIENTS
    • ENDEMISM AND HOTSPOTS
    • LIFE HISTORY PATTERNS OF REEF STOMATOPODS
    • SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION
    • DISCUSSION
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 4. Homage to Linnaeus: How Many Parasites? How Many Hosts?
    • HOW MANY SPECIES ARE THERE ON EARTH?
    • HOW MANY PARASITE SPECIES?
    • HOW MANY PARASITE SPECIES PER HOST SPECIES?
    • HOW MANY PARASITES AND WHAT IS THEIR ROLE IN AN ECOLOGICAL FOOD WEB?
    • HOW RAPIDLY ARE WE LOSING HOSTS AND PARASITES?
    • WHERE DO AVIAN HOSTS OCCUR?
    • LOSS OF AVIAN DIVERSITY: CLIMATE CHANGE VERSUS HABITAT LOSS
    • HOW MANY BIRD PARASITES HAVE WE LOST?
    • ECOSYSTEMS SERVICES LOST?
    • REGULATION OF HOST POPULATIONS AND RELATIVE ABUNDANCE IN COMMUNITIES
    • REGULATION OF CONCENTRATION OF POLLUTANTS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• Part II. CONTEMPORARY PATTERNS AND PROCESSES IN PLANTS AND MICROBES
  • 5. Species Invasions and Extinction: The Future of Native Biodiversity on Islands
    • GENERAL DRIVERS OF EXTINCTION
    • INVASIONS AND EXTINCTIONS ON ISLANDS
    • EVALUATING COLONIZATION-BASED SATURATION
    • EVALUATING EXTINCTION-BASED SATURATION
    • FUTURE OF PLANT DIVERSITY ON ISLANDS
    • GAPS IN EXTINCTION RESEARCH
    • METHODS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
    • APPENDIX: NATURALIZED VASCULAR PLANT SPECIES ON ISLANDS OVER TIME
  • 6. How Many Tree Species Are There in the Amazon and How Many of Them Will Go Extinct?
    • APPLYING NEUTRAL THEORY: FISHER’S LOGSERIES OR PRESTON’S LOGNORMAL?
    • ESTIMATING THE BIODIVERSITY NUMBER AND ABUNDANCE OF AMAZONIAN TREE SPECIES
    • ESTIMATING THE RANGE SIZES OF AMAZONIAN TREE SPECIES
    • ESTIMATING TREE SPECIES EXTINCTION RISK IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON
    • CONCLUSIONS AND CAVEATS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 7. Microbes on Mountainsides: Contrasting Elevational Patterns of Bacterial and Plant Diversity
    • ELEVATIONAL DIVERSITY IN A PHYLOGENETIC CONTEXT
    • RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
    • MATERIALS AND METHODS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 8. Resistance, Resilience, and Redundancy in Microbial Communities
    • A FRAMEWORK WITHIN THE BLACK BOX
    • RESISTANCE OF MICROBIAL COMPOSITION
    • RESILIENCE OF MICROBIAL COMPOSITION
    • FUNCTIONAL REDUNDANCY OF MICROBIAL COMPOSITION
    • INCORPORATING MICROBES INTO MODELS: PHYSIOLOGICAL TRAITS AND PROCESS RESPONSE CURVES
    • CONCLUSIONS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• Part III. TRENDS AND PROCESSES IN THE PALEONTOLOGICAL PAST
  • 9. Extinction as the Loss of Evolutionary History
    • METRICS FOR THE LOSS OF EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY
    • APPLICATION TO PAST BIOTIC CRISES
    • THE (RE)-CONSTRUCTION OF DIVERSITY
    • CONCLUSION
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 10. Extinction and the Spatial Dynamics of Biodiversity
    • EXTINCTION SELECTIVITY CHANGES AT THE MOST EXTREME EVENTS
    • SOME EXTINCTIONS ARE SPATIALLY COMPLEX
    • RECOVERIES ARE ALSO SPATIALLY COMPLEX
    • EXTINCTION INFLUENCES SPATIAL DYNAMICS ACROSS LATITUDE
    • INTEGRATING PALEONTOLOGICAL AND NEONTOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 11. Dynamics of Origination and Extinction in the Marine Fossil Record
    • Pulsed Turnover Rates
    • Phanerozoic Decline in Extinction Rates
    • Big Five Mass Extinctions
    • Periodicity and Self-Organized Criticality
    • EQUILIBRIAL DYNAMICS
    • DISCUSSION
    • MATERIALS AND METHODS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 12. Megafauna Biomass Tradeoff as a Driver of Quaternary and Future Extinctions
    • RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
    • CONCLUSIONS
    • METHODS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• Part IV. PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
  • 13. A Phylogenetic Perspective on the Distribution of Plant Diversity
    • REFLECTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF ECOLOGICAL TRAITS
    • PHYLOGENETIC NICHE CONSERVATISM (PNC)
    • NICHE CONSERVATISM AND LOCAL COMMUNITY ASSEMBLY
    • NICHE CONSERVATISM AND REGIONAL SPECIES POOLS
    • IT’S EASIER TO MOVE THAN TO EVOLVE (UNLESS IT ISN’T)
    • THREE EXAMPLES
    • CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 14. Phylogenetic Trees and the Future of Mammalian Biodiversity
    • A SNAPSHOT OF MAMMALIAN BIODIVERSITY
    • THREATS FACING MAMMALIAN BIODIVERSITY
    • COMPARATIVE ANALYSES OF MAMMALIAN EXTINCTION RISK
    • MODELING FUTURE DECLINES
    • SETTING PRIORITIES AMONG AREAS
    • BEYOND THE DECLINES: THE EVOLUTIONARY FUTURE?
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 15. Three Ambitious (and Rather Unorthodox) Assignments for the Field of Biodiversity Genetics
    • TREE OF LIFE
    • PLEISTOCENE PARKS
    • BIODIVERSITY EDUCATION
    • CONCLUSION
  • 16. Engaging the Public in Biodiversity Issues
    • STRATEGIES FOR ENGAGEMENT
    • UNDERSTANDING THE AUDIENCES
    • CRAFTING THE MESSAGE
    • DELIVERING THE MESSAGE AND ELICITING ENGAGEMENT
    • CONCLUSIONS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • 17. Further Engaging the Public on Biodiversity Issues
    • CALIFORNIA AND ORANGE COUNTY
  • 18. Where Does Biodiversity Go from Here? A Grim Business-as-Usual Forecast and a Hopeful Portfolio of Partial Solutions
    • BUSINESS AS USUAL: WHERE DOES BIODIVERSITY GO FROM HERE?
    • BUSINESS AS UNUSUAL: WHERE ELSE MIGHT BIODIVERSITY GO FROM HERE?
    • CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
    • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• References

This volume is based on the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences, “In the Light of Evolution II: Biodiversity and Extinction,” held December 7-8, 2007, at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering in Irvine, California. The articles appearing in these pages were contributed by speakers at the colloquium and have been anonymously reviewed. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the National Academy of Sciences.