Clinical Inputs and Natural History of Disease
As glaucoma and its treatment have long-term consequences, a lifetime model was considered appropriate.105 However, the included clinical studies all reported on surrogate outcomes over a short time period (typically a one-year study duration). Modelling of disease progression and treatment was necessary to project long-term costs and consequences. A one-year model was also conducted in a non–reference-case analysis to explore this.
Mortality rates were obtained from the Canadian Life Tables 2014 to 2016108 and were influenced by age; mortality was assumed to be the same for all VF stages (no increased risk of death with more severe VF deficit). When reported, the average baseline VF was informed by the clinical studies that were used to inform the model (). The starting age was calculated based on the weighted average from included clinical studies for each model category.
Relative Efficacy (Probability Distribution: Normal) of Reference-Case Models.
Relative treatment efficacy in the economic model was based on the most commonly reported outcomes from the identified studies of the Clinical Review: IOP reduction and medication reduction.
To estimate the rate of glaucoma progression defined by VF, from change in IOP, modelling was necessary. The following approach was taken to derive the relationship between rate of progression and change in IOP. In the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial, the rate of progression of glaucoma in untreated patients was reported to be −0.05 dB per month (converted to −0.6 dB per year).107 Treatment in this trial (i.e., laser therapy with medication) resulted in an IOP reduction of 5.1 mm Hg with a corresponding reduction in the rate of VF progression from −0.05 dB (baseline) to −0.03 dB per month; this change in IOP corresponded to a reduction factor of 0.6 dB for VF progression (i.e., −0.03 dB and −0.05 dB). The standardized reduction per unit of IOP reduction was then calculated as follows:
Using this association, the change in disease progression from treatment was estimated using the IOP reduction that was reported from the clinical studies. For example, in a study comparing two iStent Injects (2nd generation) versus pharmacotherapy (i.e., Latanoprost + Timolol),36 the annual IOP reduction was 12.2 mm Hg and 11.6 mm Hg, respectively. As such, the annual rate of disease progression with treatment was calculated using the following equation:
Of note, other observational studies have reported on the association between change in IOP and change in rate of VF progression (i.e., standardized reduction per unit of IOP reduction of 0.840, calculated using changes in IOP and VF observed in the Canadian Glaucoma Study);109 this was used to inform sensitivity analysis where the change in IOP resulted in slower disease progression than the reference-case analysis. In another scenario analysis, a faster rate of progression was modelled based on the reported decline in VF in untreated patients (i.e., −0.92 dB per year110).
The transition probabilities in each monthly cycle were estimated as the inverse of the number of months needed for a patient to transition from one health state to the next. For example, the average baseline VF in Model 1 was −6.65 dB () and the numbers of months needed to transit from a moderate glaucoma stage to an advanced stage for two iStent Injects would therefore be calculated as:
As such, the transition probability from moderate-to-advanced stage for iStent was 0.28% per month (the inverse of 364 months) or 3.3% per year.
These studies were selected as the reference case in each category of comparison based on the following criteria: a) when meta-analysis was available, the pooled clinical measure was used (Model 4); b) when a statistically significant difference (least conservative estimate) was observed in IOP reduction (Model 3a) or c) when 12-month data were reported (models 3b and 5). For Model 1, Fea et al. 2014 was selected as the reference case with the medication strategy assumed to entail two medications (i.e., average costs of one and three medication therapy).36 Only one study was available for Model 2.62 IOP reduction from the study was applied to the baseline rate of change (−0.6 dB per year and a standardized reduction of 0.905 for every unit of IOP) for each strategy. The remainder of the clinical studies were used to inform the range of relative efficacy that were examined in probabilistic scenario analyses. Relative efficacy from different studies was standardized to 12-month rates to inform model inputs.
To account for the likelihood of attenuating relative efficacy over time, a 10% decline per year in the treatment effect of IOP reduction was assumed after the trial follow-up period for all interventions. Scenario analysis was undertaken assuming no treatment effect attenuation after trial follow-up period.
Relative medication reduction between two treatments was modelled, and the difference in medication use after 12-month follow-up was also assumed to decline 10% per year. For example, in Model 2, where the relative medication reduction at 12 months for Hydrus Microstent versus laser therapy was reported to be 1.4 versus 0.5 (i.e., 0.9 less for laser therapy), an incremental medication cost of 0.9 units was added to the laser therapy group.62
Drug adherence was only considered in Model 1. Adherence rate was not reported in either of the clinical studies available for medication versus MIGS.36,58 As such, the reference case evaluated a range of adherence rates (20% to 95%) suggested by Newman-Casey et al.111 The definition of “adherence” on treatment effects was based on a Canadian RCT that evaluated an educational intervention on glaucoma drug adherence and defined drug adherence as persistence of at least 75% of prescribed medication in one year.112 Assuming similar definition of adherence (i.e., nonadherent patients are less than 75% adherent to their medication), and assuming there is a direct correlation between adherence and IOP reduction (i.e., nonadherent patients achieve 75% IOP reduction), the rate of disease progression for patients not adherent to medication was 25% faster than patients who demonstrated “complete” adherence. Furthermore, in a patient that is nonadherent, it was assumed that 75% of drug use (and cost) would be incurred.112 Note that in the RCTs that inform relative efficacy, medication adherence was not reported; it was assumed that medication adherence in the RCTs represented “100%” adherence (reference case).
AEs from MIGS or surgical interventions were included in the model by applying a one-time AE-related cost and, for major complications or those necessitating a secondary surgical intervention, a disutility within the model’s cycle in which the AEs were expected to occur. Prevalence of AEs was obtained from clinical studies ().
Adverse Events in Reference-Case Models, Approach to Manage Different Types of Complications and Rates (> 2%).
Utilities
The baseline utility values for patients with glaucoma were derived from the formula developed by Van Gestel et al. in their discrete event simulation model:113
The coefficients were derived from cross-sectional survey data collected on 531 Dutch patients with ocular hypertension or primary OAG and mapped the impact of VF loss, presence of cataracts, and development of side effects on utility values.113 Utility estimates were based on the Health Utilities Index mark 3 using tariffs for the Canadian population. To estimate state-specific utility values, the midpoint VF in each health state (−3 dB for mild, −9 dB for moderate, −16 dB for advanced, and −26 dB for severe/blindness) was selected. Utility values were further specific to whether patients had cataract or no cataract ().
Utility Values Per Year for Health States.
Disutility from side effects was assumed to be the same across all treatments in the model and was applied to one cycle within the model.
In the reference case, no disutility was applied to patients on medications. However, the Patients’ Perspectives and Experiences Review has noted that patients find eye drops highly disruptive. As such, a disutility from medication was applied in a sensitivity analysis to explore how this may impact the cost-effectiveness of MIGS versus medication. In this sensitivity analysis, the side-effect coefficient (−0.101) from the previously used equation was applied to patients on medications.
Costs
All costs were reported in Canadian dollars and, where appropriate, were inflated to 2018 costs using the Consumer Price Index for all items in Canada.114
MIGS device costs were obtained from a Canadian costing study19 comparing MIGS with medications. For other device costs that were not listed in the literature, the clinical expert was consulted on this review to provide an estimate on these costs. Per the Implementation Issues Analysis review that noted start-up costs for MIGS are generally minimal or are covered by the manufacturers, it was assumed to be negligible.
Medication costs were updated using 2018 prices from Ontario115 and Alberta116 formularies (additional details are provided in Appendix 15). In Model 1, where MIGS was compared with medications, patients were assumed to be on two medications at baseline until subsequent treatment occured. The annual cost of one medication (Alberta: $96) was treated as the unit cost to calculate the cost of relative medication reduction for all models.
Surgeons’ fees and OR costs were respectively obtained from the Schedule of Benefits and Ontario Case Costing Initiative (OCCI) (2016/2017 day surgery)117 in Ontario, and Alberta Medical Association and Interactive Health Data Application118 in Alberta to allow exploration of the potential variability in costs across Canada (and recognizing that specific billing fees for MIGS do not exist in many jurisdictions). Details on physician billing codes for each procedure are document in Table 47, Appendix 14.
In terms of OR costs for Trabeculectomy, it was assumed to be the same as those of a “major eye intervention” (OCCI 2016/17 day surgery117) given that, when converting the procedure code for Trabeculectomy to the Comprehensive Ambulatory Classification System grouper on the OCCI, it was equivalent to a major intervention. OR costs were not available for MIGS; these costs were estimated with reference to the OR costs of cataract surgery, and more specifically for phacoemulsification. The approach to estimate the OR cost were based on separating the proportion of phacoemulsification costs that represented fixed and variable costs. In particular, it has been suggested that OR for phacoemulsification consist of 51% fixed and 49% variable costs.119 Fixed costs were assumed to be identical across all ophthalmological procedures while variable costs were adjusted according the time required to perform the procedure relative to the time required to perform phacoemulsification (approximately 20 minutes). The clinical expert consulted on this review provided insight to the expected procedure durations. Details of the calculation are presented in . To estimate the OR costs of combined surgeries (i.e., MIGS + cataract surgery or Trabeculectomy + cataract surgery), the variable cost for the second procedure was added to the overall OR cost of cataract surgery.
Detailed Calculation to Determine Operating Room Costs for MIGS or MIGS + Other Surgery.
All secondary surgical interventions (i.e., subsequent Trabeculectomy) were assumed to require the same resource utilization.
Alberta costs (physician fees, OR, and medication) were used in the reference case analysis. Scenario analyses with Ontario costs were performed to explore the impact of a different province’s health care service costs on the results.
Health state costs and utilization, including ophthalmologist consultations and set of tests including vision field test, optic disc imaging, and IOP measurement, were derived from Canadian Glaucoma Guidelines,3 expert opinion, and Canadian sources ().120,121 Ophthalmologist consultations are recommended at least every four to 12 months, depending on the stage of glaucoma severity. According to the Canadian guidelines, 1.5 sets of tests per year are further recommended for mild state, while two sets of tests are recommended for more severe diseases. Of note, in some jurisdictions, a maximum of two optic disc imagings per year are allowed for billing. Furthermore, one-time costs on low-vision aids (i.e., canes) were assumed to patients in the advanced stage.122,123 Ongoing cost of low-vision services, including low-vision care specialist visits, non-Humphrey Visual Field testing and physical rehabilitation services were also applied to 25% patients in the severe/blind stage ().121,124
Cost Parameters Used in the Model (2018 Canadian Dollars).
In terms of costing for AEs, the model assumed two additional ophthalmologist consultations for any AEs, and 10% of major complications would require surgical intervention, which was assumed to be equivalent to the cost of minor eye intervention and a physician fee equivalent to paracentesis.