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Ensor J, Riley RD, Jowett S, et al.; on behalf of the PIT-STOP collaborative group. Prediction of risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism following treatment for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: systematic review, prognostic model and clinical decision rule, and economic evaluation. Southampton (UK): NIHR Journals Library; 2016 Feb. (Health Technology Assessment, No. 20.12.)

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Prediction of risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism following treatment for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: systematic review, prognostic model and clinical decision rule, and economic evaluation.

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Appendix 7Sensitivity analysis on D-dimer assays

A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variability in D-dimer measurements, which could be due to different D-dimer assays. The effect of a 10% change in D-dimer values on the predicted probabilities from the post D-dimer model was calculated and plotted (Table 64 and Figures 87–89). To give a broad picture the median and upper and lower quartile values of D-dimer were selected from the RVTEC database. All other predictor values were forced to be constant in the model for the predictions. The figures show very little difference in predicted recurrence-free survival, indicating that in practice a similar treatment decision would be made regardless of such a discrepancy in D-dimer measurements.

TABLE 64

TABLE 64

Values of log-D-dimer used in post D-dimer model to assess 10% change in D-dimer value

FIGURE 87. Predicted recurrence-free survival for the 25th percentile of D-dimer values and 10% change in D-dimer values.

FIGURE 87

Predicted recurrence-free survival for the 25th percentile of D-dimer values and 10% change in D-dimer values.

FIGURE 89. Predicted recurrence-free survival for the 75th percentile of D-dimer values and 10% change in D-dimer values.

FIGURE 89

Predicted recurrence-free survival for the 75th percentile of D-dimer values and 10% change in D-dimer values.

FIGURE 88. Predicted recurrence-free survival for the 50th percentile of D-dimer values and 10% change in D-dimer values.

FIGURE 88

Predicted recurrence-free survival for the 50th percentile of D-dimer values and 10% change in D-dimer values.

Copyright © Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2016. This work was produced by Ensor et al. under the terms of a commissioning contract issued by the Secretary of State for Health. This issue may be freely reproduced for the purposes of private research and study and extracts (or indeed, the full report) may be included in professional journals provided that suitable acknowledgement is made and the reproduction is not associated with any form of advertising. Applications for commercial reproduction should be addressed to: NIHR Journals Library, National Institute for Health Research, Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre, Alpha House, University of Southampton Science Park, Southampton SO16 7NS, UK.

Included under terms of UK Non-commercial Government License.

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