Climate change poses risks to human health and well-being through shifting weather patterns, increases in frequency and intensity of heat waves and other extreme weather events, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and other environmental effects. Those risks occur against a backdrop of changing socioeconomic conditions, medical technology, population demographics, environmental conditions, and other factors that are important in determining health. Models of health risks that reflect how health determinants and climate changes vary in time and space are needed so that we can inform adaptation efforts and reduce or prevent adverse health effects. Robust health risk models could also help to inform national and international discussions about climate policies and the economic consequences of action and inaction.

Interest in resolving some of the challenges facing health effects modelers and health scientists led the National Research Council's Standing Committee on Emerging Science for Environmental Health Decisions to hold a workshop on November 3-4, 2014, in Washington, DC, to explore new approaches to modeling the human health risks of climate change. Throughout the workshop, the discussions highlighted examples of current application of models, research gaps, lessons learned, and potential next steps to improve modeling of health risks associated with climate change. Modeling the Health Risks of Climate Change summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

Contents

• THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
• PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP MODELING THE HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• STANDING COMMITTEE ON EMERGING SCIENCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH DECISIONS
• BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES
• ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS
• 1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
  • GOALS
  • WORKSHOP OVERVIEW
  • ABOUT THIS REPORT
• 2. HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT WE KNOW AND WHY WE MODEL
  • CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH: WHAT DO WE KNOW
  • WHY MODEL THE HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
• 3. MODELING HEALTH RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: STATUS, HURDLES, AND OPPORTUNITIES
  • DEFINITIONS, MECHANICS, AND KEY CONSIDERATIONS
  • INTEGRATING MODELS
  • MODELING: THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE
  • HURDLES
  • OPPORTUNITIES
• 4. APPLYING SYSTEMS THINKING TO UNDERSTAND FUTURE VULNERABILITIES
  • SYSTEMS THINKING: DEFINITIONS AND IMPORTANCE
  • INCORPORATING SYSTEMS THINKING INTO MODELS
• 5. MOVING FORWARD
  • COMPLEXITY, CONTEXT, AND FUTURE SCENARIOS
  • SHIFTING THE PARADIGMS
  • RELEVANCE TO DECISION-MAKERS
  • MODEL COMPARABILITY
  • COMMUNICATION
• APPENDIXES
  • APPENDIX A STATEMENT OF TASK
  • APPENDIX B WORKSHOP AGENDA
  • APPENDIX C WORKSHOP ATTENDEES

Rapporteurs: Kellyn Betts and Keegan Sawyer.

This workshop was supported by Contract HHSN26300049 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institutes of Health.

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.