This report begins by providing an overview of demographic modeling, including the strengths and weaknesses of this technique. Then the elements of the model are developed (e.g., workforce inflows and outflows are defined) and the data set used for estimation of the model—the Survey of Doctorate Recipients (SDR)—is described. Next, the calculation of transition rates for various life changes (e.g., retirement, changing profession) is described. At this point, the model is used to make retroactive projections that are tested against real data from the SDR. Finally, the panel presents recommendations for further work that is needed to develop the model so that it can be used to project the needs for biomedical and behavioral scientists.

Contents

• COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL NEEDS FOR BIOMEDICAL AND BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH PERSONNEL
• Acknowledgments
• Demographic Models
  • Introduction
• Demographic Modeling: An Overview
• Modeling the Biomedical/Behavioral Workforce: Strengths and Limitations
• Applying the Model to the Biomedical and Behavioral Science Workforce
• The Data
  • Transition Rates
  • Stability of Estimates
  • Precision of Estimates
• Initial Results
  • Accuracy of the Model
• Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations
  • Summary
  • Conclusions
  • Recommendations
• References
• Appendix A. An Examination of the Assumption of Zero Immigration
• Appendix B. Age Distribution of New Entrants
• Appendix C. Transition Rates
• Appendix D. Distribution of Coefficients of Variation

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Brace M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.