Acs, 1993 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1988 | Women 14–23 | Probability that woman has first birth | Not significant |
| | | Unmarried women 14–23 | Probability that unmarried woman has first birth | Not significant |
| | | Women 14–23 | Probability that woman has a birth and goes on AFDC | Positive |
| | | Women 14–23 who have had a first birth | Probability that woman has second birth | Not significant |
Acs, 1996 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1988 | Women 23–25 in 1988 who have had a child | Probability that woman has second birth | Not significant for blacks or for whites |
| | | Women 23–25 in 1988 who have had a child and were on AFDC | Probability that woman has second birth | Not significant for blacks or for whites |
| | | Women 23–25 in 1988 who have had a child and were on AFDC and who grew up in a low-income single-parent home | Probability that woman has second birth | Not significant for blacks or for whites |
Allen, 1993 | Cross-province comparison of levels | Census of Canada 1986 micro data | Women less than 45 on or at poverty line | Probability that woman is a single parent | Positive |
| | | | Probability that woman has an out-of-wedlock birth | Positive |
| | | | Probability that woman is divorced | Positive |
An et al., 1993 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Panel Study on Income Dynamics 1968–1987 | Women 19–25 in 1987 | Probability of having an out-of-wedlock birth between ages 13 and 18 | Not significant |
Blank et al., 1994 | Cross-state comparison of changes | Alan Guttmacher Institute data 1974–1988 | All U.S. states | Abortion rate by state of occurrence | AFDC: Mixed but usually insignificant |
| | | | | Medicaid: In-state restrictions—negative; border-state restrictions—positive |
| | | | Number of abortion providers in state | AFDC: Not significant |
| | | | | Medicaid: In-state restrictions—not significant; border-state restrictions—negative |
| | | | Abortion rates for state residents (occurring inside or outside the state) | Not significant for both AFDC and Medicaid restriction variables |
| | | | Difference between abortion rates by state of occurrence and by state of residence | AFDC: Not significant |
| | | | | Medicaid: In-state and border-state restrictions are significant with a larger gap associated with border-state Medicaid restrictions |
Blank et al., 1994 | Cross-state comparison of changes | Alan Guttmacher Institute data 1974–1988 | All U.S. states | Abortion rates by age and race. For groups: teens and nonteens, whites and nonwhites | |
Clarke and Strauss, 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Vital Statistics 1980–1990 | Unmarried women 15–19 (blacks: 36 states only) | Illegitimacy rate | Whites and Blacks: No effect in ordinary least squares but positive effect in two-stage least squares |
| Cross-state comparison of changes | | | | AFDC Guarantee: White—positive in ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares; black—negative in ordinary least squares and positive in two-stage least squares |
| | | | | Benefit differential: Not significant for black or white women in any specification |
Cutright, 1970 | Time trend | Vital statistics 1940–1965 | Annual aggregates 1940–1965 | U.S. illegitimacy rates 1940–1965 | Overall positive relationship holds but not for specific time periods, especially for blacks |
| Cross-state comparison of levels | | 4 U.S. states | State illegitimacy ratio 1950–1964 | States with higher benefit levels or recipiency rates do not have higher illegitimacy ratios |
| Time trend | | Several countries | International illegitimacy rates | Negative |
Danziger et al., 1982 | Cross-state comparison of levels | CPS 1975 | Women 25–54 married or female heads | Female headship | Positive for white and nonwhite women |
Darity and Myers, 1993 | Time trend | Not reported 1955–1980 | Annual aggregates | Ratio of black female-headed households to black non-female-headed households | Not significant |
Duncan and Hoffman, 1990 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Panel Study on Income Dynamics 1968–1985 | Black women in 1985 who turned 19 between 1973 and 1985 | Probability of an out-of-wedlock birth followed by AFDC receipt | Positive (weak) on AFDC-related births |
| | | | | Not significant for non-AFDC-related births |
Ellwood and Bane, 1985 | Within-state comparison of women with different probabilities of being on AFDC | Survey of Income and Education 1976 | All women 16–44 | Probability that woman is an independent female head | Positive for whites and nonwhites ages 16–34 with higher significance levels for whites and higher magnitudes for nonwhites |
| | | | Probability that woman is a single mother | Not significant for nonwhites; positive for whites but age range is sensitive to specification |
| | | Single mothers 16–44 | Probability that single mother lives independently | Positive for whites and nonwhites ages 16–24 |
| | | Married mothers 16–44 | Probability that woman is newly divorced | Not significant for whites or nonwhites |
| | | Ever-married mothers 16–44 | Probability that woman is currently divorced | Positive for whites and nonwhites ages 16–24 and for whites 25–30; not significant for older nonwhite women |
| | | Unmarried women without children or with child < 1 | Probability that woman has a nonmarital birth | Not significant for whites and nonwhites ages 16–24; positive for older white women ages 25–34 |
| | | Never-married women 16–44 | Probability that woman becomes a mother | Not significant for whites and nonwhites ages 16–24; positive for whites and nonwhites ages 25–34 |
| Within-state comparison of different eligibility types | Vital statistics, U.S. Census 1970 | Selected states, women 14–44 | Percent of ever-married mothers who are divorced or separated | Negative for whites and not significant for nonwhites |
| | | | Birth rate for unmarried women | Not significant for whites and nonwhites |
| | | | Ratio of percentage of ever-married mothers above age 14 who are divorced or separated to percentage of ever-married childless women above 14 who are divorced or separated | Not significant for whites and nonwhites |
| | | | Ratio of birth rate of unmarried women to birth rate of married women | Not significant for whites and nonwhites |
| Cross-state comparison of changes | U.S. Census 1960, 1970 | All U.S. states | Percent of women above 14 who are independent female heads | Not significant for whites or blacks |
| | | | Number of children living with a female head as a fraction of total children not living with both parents | Positive for 1960 and 1970 benefit levels of white and nonwhite women |
| | | | Percent of ever-married women above 14 who are divorced | Positive for whites in 1970; not significant for blacks in 1960 and 1970 or for whites in 1960 |
| | | | Unmarried birth rate | Not significant for whites or blacks |
Fossett and Kiecolt, 1993 | Cross-city comparison of levels | U.S. Census 1980, vital statistics 1979–1981 | 270 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas | Percent of black men in metropolitan area who are married | Negative |
| | | | Percent of black women in metropolitan area who are married | Negative |
| | | | Percent of black women with children under 6 in metropolitan area | Negative |
| | | | Percent of black women with children under 18 in metropolitan area | Negative |
| | | | Percent of families with children under 6 in metropolitan area who are married | Negative |
| | | | Percent of families with children under 18 in metropolitan area who are married | Negative |
| | | | Percent of children living in husband-wife families in metropolitan area | Negative |
| | | | Percent of births to black women in metropolitan area who are married | Negative for all four groups with a higher magnitude for black women 20–29 than for black teens |
Freshnock and Cutright, 1979 | Cross-county comparison of levels | Vital statistics 1970 | Approximately 1,000 counties with usable data | Illegitimate birth rate for unmarried women | Not significant for teens; positive for never married whites ages 20–44; negative for blacks ages 20–44, with a larger magnitude in absolute value than that of whites |
Hill and O'Neill, 1993 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1987 | Women 23–30 in 1987 | Probability that woman has had a child but has never been married since 1979 | Positive for white women; not significant for black women |
| | | | Probability that woman had an out-of-wedlock birth in the last year | Positive for white women; not significant for black women |
Hoffman and Duncan, 1988 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Panel Study on Income Dynamics 1969–1982 | Women who were divorced or separated 1969–1982 and were < 45 at time of event | Probability of remarriage | Not significant for blacks or whites |
Hoffman and Duncan, 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Panel Study on Income Dynamics 1967–1985 | Women with children and with a first marriage during 1967–1993 | Probability of divorce | Positive for AFDC 5-year moving average; not significant for AFDC guarantee |
Hoynes, 1995, 1996 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Panel Study on Income Dynamics 1969–1989 | Women 16–50 either married or household head in selected states | Probability that woman is a female head | Positive for blacks and whites, with larger magnitude for blacks |
| Cross-state comparison of changes | | | Probability that woman is a female head | Zero and not significant for whites with fixed state and/or individual effects; positive for blacks with state fixed effects but zero and not significant with individual fixed effects |
Hutchens, 1979 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Panel Study on Income Dynamics 1968–1972 | Female heads in 1970 in 20 states | Probability of 1970 female head remarrying or cohabiting by 1972 | Negative |
Hutchens et al., 1989 | Cross-state comparison of levels | CPS 1984 | Women less than 36, with at least one child, no husband present | Probability of being a household head | Positive for difference between household head and subfamily head benefit levels; not significant for benefit guarantee level alone |
| | | | Probability that woman is on or off welfare and is household head or subfamily head | Difference between household head and subfamily head benefits significant positive only for household head versus subfamily head on welfare; all other effects insignificant |
Jackson and Klerman, 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Center for Health Statistics birth certificate tapes 1975–1990 | All women 15–44 | Birth rate for state in year (by age and race) | For both whites and blacks, negative for age < 21 and positive for age >> 21 |
| Cross-state comparison of changes | | | | Positive for whites through age 30 with largest magnitudes in early twenties; negative for blacks after age 33 |
| | | | Birth rate for state in year for first births (by age and race) | Positive for whites 15–19 and for blacks 16–26 |
| | | | Birth rate for state in year for higher-order births (by age and race) | Positive for whites above 17 and for blacks 18–21 |
| | | Selected states | Marital birth rate (marital births per total women) | Positive for blacks and whites |
| | | | Nonmarital birth rate (nonmarital births per total women) | Positive for blacks and whites |
Janowitz, 1976 | Cross-Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area comparison of levels | U.S. Census 1969, 1970, 1973; Department of Health, Education and Welfare data (1968, 1970) | 58 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas > 250,000 with illegitimate data by race | Illegitimate birth rate among unmarried women | Positive for nonwhites 15–29; not significant for whites |
Lichter et al., 1991 | Cross-labor market area comparison of levels | U.S. Census 1980 | 328 labor market areas | Proportion of women currently married, ever married, recently married (5 years) | Negative for all three measures for blacks and whites |
Lichter et al., 1992 | Cross-labor market area comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1986 | Never-married women 18–28 from 1979 to 1986 | Probability that woman will have a transition into marriage | Not significant |
Lichter et al., 1996 | Cross-county and state comparison of changes | U.S. Census 1980, 1990 | All counties with sufficient sample size | Fraction of families with children under 18 headed by never-married or divorced women | Positive for whites and blacks; no effect for Latinos |
Lundberg and Plotnick, 1990 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1986 | Unmarried white women 21–23 in 1986 | Probability that teen will not marry conditional on having a birth | Positive |
| | | | Probability that teen carries pregnancy to term conditional on pregnancy | Negative |
| | | | Probability that teen will become pregnant | Negative |
Lundberg and Plotnick, 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1986 | Unmarried women 21–23 in 1986 | Probability teen will not marry conditional on having a birth | Positive for whites; not significant for blacks |
| | | | Probability that teen carries pregnancy to term conditional on having a pregnancy | Positive for whites; not significant for blacks |
| | | | Probability that teen becomes pregnant | Positive but small for whites; not significant for blacks |
Matthews et al., 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | U.S. state data 1978–1987 | All U.S. states | Birth rate | Negative |
| | | | Abortion rate | Positive |
| Cross-state comparison of changes | | | Birth rate | Positive |
| | | | Abortion rate | Insignificant |
Moffitt, 1990 | Cross-state comparison of levels | CPS 1969, 1977, 1985 | Men and women 16–55 | Probability of being married Probability of being female head | Insignificant for whites; negative for black men and mixed for black women |
Moffitt, 1994 | Cross-state comparison of levels | CPS 1968–1989 | Women 20–44 with less than 12 years of education | Probability woman is a subfamily or household head | Effects for whites are positive and significant; effects for blacks are insignificant |
| Cross-state comparison of changes | | | | No effect for whites; negative effects for blacks |
Moore and Caldwell, 1977 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Kanter and Zelnik survey, 1971 | Women 15–19 | Probability teen is sexually active | Positive for whites ages 16–18 with AFDC benefit level but insignificant at other ages and for blacks |
| Cross-state comparison of levels | Vital statistics 1974 | Selected states | Probability teen becomes pregnant | Negative for blacks 12–15 but not significant at other ages or for whites |
| | | | Probability pregnant teen will obtain abortion | Negative |
| | | | Probability pregnant teen will marry before the birth | Not significant |
| | | | Probability pregnant teen will have out-of-wedlock birth | Not significant |
| | | | Out-of-wedlock birth rate of women ages 15–44 | Insignificant for black or white women |
Moore et al., 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Survey of Children 1976, 1981, 1987 | Individuals 11–17 | Probability of first premarital sex | Insignificant for girls and boys |
| | | | Probability of contraceptive use conditional on premarital sex | Not significant for girls or boys |
Murray, 1993 | Time trend | Vital statistics 1960–1988 | Annual aggregates | Illegitimacy ratio | No simple correlation |
| Cross-state comparison of levels | | U.S. states | Illegitimacy ratio | Positive for white women starting in the mid-1960s; no relationship for black women |
Ozawa, 1989 | Cross-state comparison of levels | Vital statistics 1984 | All U.S. states | Illegitimacy ratio for women under 19 | Positive for white teens; not significant for black teens |
Plotnick, 1990 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1984 | Women 19–20 in 1984 | Probability teen has a nonmarital birth by age 19 | Not significant for Hispanic or black women; sometimes positive and sometimes insignificant for white women |
Rank, 1989 | Within-state comparison of participants and nonparticipants | Wisconsin welfare records 1980–1983 | 2 percent sample of all cases on rolls in September 1980 | Fertility rate | Negative effect |
Robins and Fronstin, 1996 | Cross-state or region comparison of changes | CPS 1980–1988 | Never-married women 18–30 with zero or one child | Probability of giving birth to first child | Insignificant for whites and positive for blacks |
| | | Never-married women 18–30 with zero or one child and with no high school diploma | Probability of giving birth to first child | Insignificant |
| Cross-state comparison of changes in benefit increments | CPS 1980–1988 | Never-married women 18–30 with at least one child | Probability that woman will give birth to another child | Negative for whites and positive for blacks for second birth only; higher-order births insignificant for both races |
| | | Never-married women 18–30 with at least one child and with no high school diploma | Probability that woman will give birth to another child | Positive for second birth; not significant for higher-order births |
Rosenzweig, 1995 | Cross-state comparison of changes | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1990 | Women aged 22 from 1980 to 1987 | Probability that woman has had premarital birth versus only marital births or no births | Premarital birth versus no birth: Positive with a higher magnitude for low-income women |
| | | | | Low income subsample: Whites stronger than blacks |
| | | | | Marital births versus no births: Not significant for blacks or whites in full- or low-income samples |
Rosenzweig and Wolpin, 1994 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–1987 | Female siblings 22–29 in 1987 | Probability that of coresiding with parents and not being on welfare vs. not coresiding with parents and not being on welfare | AFDC benefit has no effect but Food Stamp benefit has negative effect |
Schultz, 1994 | Cross-state comparison of levels | U.S. Census 1980 | Women 15–65 | Probability that woman is married | Negative at ages 15–24 for blacks and whites, not at other ages |
| | | | Number of children ever born | Positive for black women 25–34; negative for white women 15–24; insignificant at other ages |
Schultz, 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | U.S. Census 1990 | Women 15–64 | Probability that woman is married | Negative for blacks and whites |
| | | | Number of children ever born | Negative for blacks and whites |
Southwick, 1978 | Cross-state comparison of levels | 1973 AFDC characteristics study | 31 U.S. states | Percent of AFDC families with absent fathers | Positive |
| | | | Proportion of AFDC families where the father is not married to the mother | Positive for difference and ratio between income available to a two-parent family versus single-parent family |
| | | | Proportion of AFDC families with at least one illegitimate child | Negative |
| | | | Percent of AFDC families with divorce, legal separation, or separation without a court decree | Positive for divorce and legal separation; not significant for separation without a court decree |
Winegarden, 1988 | Time trend | Aggregate U.S. data 1947–1983 | Annual aggregates | Illegitimacy ratio | Positive for blacks but not for whites |
Winkler, 1995 | Cross-state comparison of levels | National Survey of Families and Households 1987 | Mothers 19–35 | Probability that mother lives in a AFDC-UP-defined two-parent family | Not significant |
| | | | Probability that mother is married | Negative for some specifications |
Yelowitz, 1993 | Cross-state comparison of changes | CPS 1989–1992 | Women 18–55 with at least one child | Probability that mother is married | Having children in a family that is eligible for Medicaid has a positive effect |