Each year the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) must estimate the number of people who are eligible to participate in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). These USDA estimates have come under critical scrutiny in part because the number of infants and postpartum women who have actually enrolled in the program has exceeded the number estimated to be eligible by as much as 20 to 30 percent. These high "coverage rates" have led some members of Congress to conclude that some people who participate are truly ineligible, and that funding could be reduced somewhat and still meet the needs of truly eligible persons who wish to participate. But some advocates and state WIC agencies believe that the estimates of the number of eligible persons are too low and more people who are eligible and want to participate could do so.

In response to these concerns, the Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) of the USDA asked the Committee on National Statistics of the National Research Council to convene a panel of experts to review the methods used to estimate the number of people nationwide who are eligible and likely to participate in the WIC program. The panel's charge is to review currently used and alternative data and methods for estimating income eligibility, adjunctive eligibility from participation in other public assistance programs, nutritional risk, and participation if the program is fully funded.

Contents

• THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
• PANEL TO EVALUATE THE USDA'S METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING ELIGIBILITY AND PARTICIPATION FOR THE WIC PROGRAM
• COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2000–2001
• Acknowledgments
• Executive Summary
• 1 Introduction
• 2. Program Eligibility
  • CATEGORICAL ELIGIBILITY
  • INCOME ELIGIBILITY
  • NUTRITIONAL RISK DETERMINATION
  • SUMMARY
• 3. Current Methods for Estimating Eligibility and Full-Funding Participation
  • ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF FULLY ELIGIBLE PERSONS
  • ESTIMATION OF FULL-FUNDING PARTICIPATION
  • COVERAGE RATES AND PREDICTION ERROR
• 4. Potential Biases in Eligibility Estimates
  • ACCURACY OF THE CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY
  • ADJUNCTIVE ELIGIBILITY
  • USE OF ANNUAL VERSUS MONTHLY INCOME
  • SIX-MONTH CERTIFICATION PERIOD FOR CHILDREN
  • DEFINING THE ECONOMIC UNIT
  • ESTIMATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF NUTRITIONAL RISK
  • OVERALL CONCLUSION
• 5. Estimates of Full-Funding Participation
• 6. Methodological Issues for Future Consideration
  • ALTERNATIVE DATASETS FOR ESTIMATING INCOME ELIGIBILITY
  • ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF ELIGIBLE PEOPLE IN THE TERRITORIES
  • ESTIMATION OF ELIGIBLE PREGNANT WOMEN
  • ESTIMATION OF ELIGIBLE POSTPARTUM WOMEN
  • CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR ELIGIBILITY ESTIMATES
• References
• APPENDIX A. Glossary
• APPENDIX B Meeting and Workshop Agendas
• APPENDIX C March Current Population Survey Income Supplement
• APPENDIX D The TRIM3 Microsimulation Model
• APPENDIX E Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. 53–3198–0–012 between the National Academy of Sciences and the United States Department of Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.