As a number of diseases emerge or reemerge thus stimulating new vaccine development opportunities to help prevent those diseases, it can be especially difficult for decision makers to know where to invest their limited resources. Therefore, it is increasingly important for decision makers to have the tools that can assist and inform their vaccine prioritization efforts.

In this first phase report, the IOM offers a framework and proof of concept to account for various factors influencing vaccine prioritization-demographic, economic, health, scientific, business, programmatic, social, policy factors and public concerns. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework describes a decision-support model and the blueprint of a software-called Strategic Multi-Attribute Ranking Tool for Vaccines or SMART Vaccines. SMART Vaccines should be of help to decision makers. SMART Vaccines Beta is not available for public use, but SMART Vaccines 1.0 is expected to be released at the end of the second phase of this study, when it will be fully operational and capable of guiding discussions about prioritizing the development and introduction of new vaccines.

Contents

• THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
• Committee on Identifying and Prioritizing New Preventive Vaccines for Development
• Reviewers
• Foreword
• Preface
• Disclaimer
• Summary
  • The committee’s charge
  • Previous Institute of Medicine reports
  • An overview of SMART Vaccines
  • Model and software development
  • Data requirements
  • Ways to use (and not to use) SMART Vaccines
  • Observations and next steps
• 1. Introduction: From Smallpox to SMART Vaccines
  • Study scope and process
  • Vaccine market dynamics
  • Prioritization efforts in the vaccine enterprise
  • New technologies and development strategies
  • Stakeholder priorities
• 2. Modeling Strategy: From Single Attribute to Multiple Attributes
  • New Vaccine Development (1985–1986) and Vaccines for the 21st Century (2000)
  • Modeling beyond cost-effectiveness
  • Values and objectives in priority setting
  • Multi-criteria decision-making methods
  • The modeling framework for SMART Vaccines Beta
  • User entries and prioritization categories
• 3. Data Evaluation and Software Development
  • Selection of vaccine candidates
  • Data sourcing and analysis
  • SMART Vaccines submodels
  • Development of the computational submodel
  • Evaluation of the computational submodel
  • Simulation of the value submodel
  • The value experiment and scenarios
  • Software development: Operational features of SMART Vaccines Beta
  • Consideration of uncertainty
  • Current capability for sensitivity analysis
  • Beta concept evaluation
• 4. Observations and Looking Forward
  • Data requirements
  • Looking ahead
• References
• A Mathematical Functions
• B Candidate Disease Profiles and Data
• C Stakeholder Speakers
• D Biographical Information

This study was supported by Contract No. HHSP23337024T, TO #45 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Vaccine Program Office of the Department of Health and Human Services. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.

Suggested citation:

IOM (Institute of Medicine). 2012. Ranking vaccines: A prioritization framework: Phase I: Demonstration of concept and a software blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.