Survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in Brazil: a model-based analysis

J Int AIDS Soc. 2016 Mar 29;19(1):20623. doi: 10.7448/IAS.19.1.20623. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Objective: In Brazil, universal provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been guaranteed free of charge to eligible HIV-positive patients since December 1996. We sought to quantify the survival benefits of ART attributable to this programme.

Methods: We used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease and treatment (CEPAC-International) and data from Brazil to estimate life expectancy increase for HIV-positive patients initiating ART in Brazil. We divided the period of 1997 to 2014 into six eras reflecting increased drug regimen efficacy, regimen availability and era-specific mean CD4 count at ART initiation. Patients were simulated first without ART and then with ART. The 2014-censored and lifetime survival benefits attributable to ART in each era were calculated as the product of the number of patients initiating ART in a given era and the increase in life expectancy attributable to ART in that era.

Results: In total, we estimated that 598,741 individuals initiated ART. Projected life expectancy increased from 2.7, 3.3, 4.1, 4.9, 5.5 and 7.1 years without ART to 11.0, 17.5, 20.7, 23.0, 25.3, and 27.0 years with ART in Eras 1 through 6, respectively. Of the total projected lifetime survival benefit of 9.3 million life-years, 16% (or 1.5 million life-years) has been realized as of December 2014.

Conclusions: Provision of ART through a national programme has led to dramatic survival benefits in Brazil, the majority of which are still to be realized. Improvements in initial and subsequent ART regimens and higher CD4 counts at ART initiation have contributed to these increasing benefits.

Keywords: Brazil; HIV; Latin America; highly active antiretroviral therapy; modelling; survival.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Anti-HIV Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Brazil
  • CD4 Lymphocyte Count
  • HIV Infections / drug therapy*
  • HIV Infections / immunology
  • HIV Infections / mortality
  • Humans
  • Life Expectancy*
  • Models, Theoretical

Substances

  • Anti-HIV Agents