Background and purpose: We developed the TURN score for predicting symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) after IV thrombolysis. Our purpose was to evaluate its ability to predict 90-day outcome.
Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 303 patients who received IV rt-PA during the NINDS rt-PA trial. Severe outcome was defined as 90-day modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores ≥5, 90-day Barthel index (BI) scores <60 and 90-day Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) scores >2. Excellent outcome was defined as 90-day mRS scores ≤1, 90-day BI scores ≥95 and 90-day GOS scores = 1. Agreement between TURN and 90-day outcome was assessed by univariate logistic regression reporting odds ratios (OR) and by areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). TURN was also compared with 6 other scores for predicting sICH or severe outcome.
Results: TURN predicted 90-day mRS ≥5 with OR 5.73, 95% confidence interval (3.60, 9.10), P < 0.001 and AUROC 0.83, 95% confidence interval (0.77, 0.89). TURN also predicted 90-day mRS ≤1 with OR 5.24, 95% confidence interval (3.43, 7.99), P < 0.001 and AUROC 0.80, 95% confidence interval (0.74, 0.85). TURN predicted 90-day mRS ≥5 with OR significantly higher than DRAGON (2.30, P = 0.01), ASTRAL (1.18, P < 0.001), HAT (2.89, P = 0.05) and SEDAN (2.16, P = 0.01), and with AUROC significantly higher than SPAN-100 (0.64, P < 0.001) and SEDAN (0.71, P = 0.01). Likewise, TURN predicted 90-day mRS ≤1 with OR significantly higher than Stroke-TPI (2.89, P = 0.05), DRAGON (2.29, P = 0.01), ASTRAL (1.15, P < 0.001), HAT (2.71, P = 0.04) and SEDAN (2.15, P = 0.01), and with AUROC significantly higher than SPAN-100 (0.58, P < 0.001) and SEDAN (0.70, P = 0.01). Similar results were obtained using 90-day BI and 90-day GOS scores.
Conclusions: TURN predicted 90-day outcome with comparable or better accuracy compared to several existing clinical scores.