Improved hidden Markov models for molecular motors, part 1: basic theory

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide an excellent analysis of recordings with very poor signal/noise ratio made from systems such as ion channels which switch among a few states. This method has also recently been used for modeling the kinetic rate constants of molecular motors, where the observable variable-the position-steadily accumulates as a result of the motor's reaction cycle. We present a new HMM implementation for obtaining the chemical-kinetic model of a molecular motor's reaction cycle called the variable-stepsize HMM in which the quantized position variable is represented by a large number of states of the Markov model. Unlike previous methods, the model allows for arbitrary distributions of step sizes, and allows these distributions to be estimated. The result is a robust algorithm that requires little or no user input for characterizing the stepping kinetics of molecular motors as recorded by optical techniques.