Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

Science. 2009 Jul 17;325(5938):290-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1172330.

Abstract

Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Birth Rate
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Diarrhea / epidemiology
  • Diarrhea / prevention & control
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Humans
  • Immunity, Herd
  • Immunization Programs
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Models, Statistical
  • Prevalence
  • Rotavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Rotavirus Infections / immunology
  • Rotavirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Rotavirus Infections / transmission
  • Rotavirus Vaccines / administration & dosage*
  • Seasons
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Vaccines, Attenuated / administration & dosage

Substances

  • RotaTeq
  • Rotavirus Vaccines
  • Vaccines, Attenuated