Purpose: To quantify medical students' preferences for various specialties and to compare shifts in specialty preference with overall employment market prospects.
Materials and methods: By using National Residency Matching Program data, a previously validated help-wanted index (HWI), and American Medical Association (AMA) salary data, the authors quantified medical students' preferences for various specialties and examined the association of shifts in specialty preference with overall trends as seen in the strength of the diagnostic radiology match and its relationship with the job market. The authors established a proxy for the relative attractiveness (RA) of diagnostic radiology (relative to all specialties) in the match, which was calculated by subtracting the percentage fill rate for all specialties from that for radiology. The RA values were plotted for 1990-2000 and compared with trends in the HWI, American College of Radiology data, and AMA salary data.
Results: The RA of diagnostic radiology varied greatly during the past 10 years, with a low in 1996 and a return to its high in recent years. There is a relationship between the RA and economic vitality of diagnostic radiology, with the RA lagging behind the HWI and AMA salary data by 2 years.
Conclusion: Medical students appear to have an in-depth understanding of the economic forces at play in the health care job market and incorporate this information into their choice of a specialty.