Nowcasting epidemics of novel pathogens: lessons from COVID-19

Nat Med. 2021 Mar;27(3):388-395. doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01278-w. Epub 2021 Mar 15.

Abstract

Epidemic nowcasting broadly refers to assessing the current state by understanding key pathogenic, epidemiologic, clinical and socio-behavioral characteristics of an ongoing outbreak. Its primary objective is to provide situational awareness and inform decisions on control responses. In the event of large-scale sustained emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists need to constantly update their aims and analytics with respect to the rapidly evolving emergence of new questions, data and findings in order to synthesize real-time evidence for policy decisions. In this Perspective, we share our views on the functional aims, rationale, data requirements and challenges of nowcasting at different stages of an epidemic, drawing on the ongoing COVID-19 experience. We highlight how recent advances in the computational and laboratory sciences could be harnessed to complement traditional approaches to enhance the scope, timeliness, reliability and utility of epidemic nowcasting.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Review

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / diagnosis
  • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / epidemiology*
  • Disease Outbreaks / history
  • Epidemics* / history
  • Forecasting / methods*
  • History, 21st Century
  • Humans
  • Pandemics
  • Reproducibility of Results