Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Oct 20;117(42):26151-26157. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2012002117. Epub 2020 Sep 28.

Abstract

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.

Keywords: climate; disease transmission; hierarchical intervention network; human behavior; international collaboration.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Climate
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / prevention & control*
  • Communicable Diseases, Emerging / transmission
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control*
  • Forecasting
  • Global Health / trends*
  • Humans
  • International Cooperation
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics / prevention & control*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Travel