Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Nov;26(11):e1-e14. doi: 10.3201/eid2611.201074. Epub 2020 Sep 11.

Abstract

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; World Health Organization; coronavirus; epidemiological parameters; mathematical modeling; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus*
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • SARS-CoV-2