Clinically Feasible Stratification of 3-Year Chronic Disease Risk in Primary Care: The Mental Health Integration Risk Score

Background: Depression is a common illness that imposes a disproportionately large health burden. Depression is generally associated with a higher prevalence of chronic disease risk factors and may contribute to higher chronic disease risk.

Objective: This study aimed to create and validate sex-specific Mental Health Integration Risk Scores (MHIRS) that predict 3-year chronic disease diagnosis.

Methods: MHIRS was created to predict the first diagnosis of any of the 10 chronic diseases in patients completing a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 Depression Survey who were free at baseline from those 10 chronic disease diagnoses. MHIRS used sex-specific weightings of Patient Health Questionnaire 9 results, age, and components of the complete metabolic profile and complete blood count in randomly chosen derivation (70%) and validation (30%) groups.

Results: Among females (N = 10,162, age: 48 ± 16), c-statistics for the composite chronic disease end point were 0.746 (0.725, 0.767) for the derivation group and 0.717 (0.682, 0.753) for the validation group, whereas males (N = 4615, age: 48 ± 15) had 0.755 (0.727, 0.783) and 0.742 (0.702, 0.782). In the validation group, MHIRS strata of low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories had hazard ratios (HR) for any 3-year chronic disease diagnosis among females of HR = 3.42 for moderate vs low and HR = 9.75 for high vs low, whereas males had HR = 4.80 and HR = 10.68, respectively (all p < 0.0001).

Conclusion: A clinical decision tool comprised by depression severity and common laboratory tests, and MHIRS provides very good stratification of a 3-year chronic disease diagnosis. Designed to be calculated electronically by an electronic health record, MHIRS can be efficiently obtained by clinicians to identify patients at higher chronic disease risk who require further evaluation and more precise clinical management.