Value at risk estimation using independent component analysis-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ICA-GARCH) models

Int J Neural Syst. 2006 Oct;16(5):371-82. doi: 10.1142/S0129065706000779.

Abstract

We suggest using independent component analysis (ICA) to decompose multivariate time series into statistically independent time series. Then, we propose to use ICA-GARCH models which are computationally efficient to estimate the multivariate volatilities. The experimental results show that the ICA-GARCH models are more effective than existing methods, including DCC, PCA-GARCH, and EWMA. We also apply the proposed models to compute value at risk (VaR) for risk management applications. The backtesting and the out-of-sample tests validate the performance of ICA-GARCH models for value at risk estimation.

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation*
  • Models, Econometric*
  • Multivariate Analysis*
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk
  • Risk Management*
  • Time Factors