Hong Kong SAR has experienced an especially rapid fall in fertility over the course of just two decades. The total fertility rate (TFR) fell steadily from the replacement level (i.e. two children per woman) to 0.83 in 1999, which is the lowest in the world. (United Nations Population Division. Replacement migration: is it a solution to declining and ageing populations? United Nations, New York, 2000.) An important question is whether the dramatic decline in the TFR results from a decline in the fertility of married women or from changes in the proportion ever married. Are married women having fewer children, or are there simply fewer married women of prime childbearing age? In this paper, the effects of the changing marital structure on the conventional TFR are identified so that the underlying trends in fertility can be assessed. The study shows that the large decline in the TFR between 1981 and 1999 was in great part distorted by tempo effects, distortions caused by changes in the timing of childbearing and the changing marital structure. Without the distortion induced by the decreasing proportion of women marrying in the prime childbearing years, the decline in fertility was essentially less significant over the 20-year period. A continuation in the downward trend in the proportion married is a strong probability in the light of marriage habits prevalent among the population. This will exert a continuing downward driving force on the TFR. Hong Kong will experience its fertility rate decline further in the short to medium term. The study investigates the effect of long-lasting below-replacement level fertility with a view to gaining some analytical insight into the situation should the population experience such a striking demographic process.
Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.